Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-31 15:45 | Report Abuse

That is based on my own calculations assuming a low teen project IRR for the green data centre project

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-05-31 16:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks dragon...based on google search, the IRR ranged from 10%-18%...

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-31 16:57 | Report Abuse

EPF sold 10m shares of YTLP last Friday when total volume traded on that day was 40m. Now EPF is left with just 5.03% stake in YTLP, soon will cease to be a substantial shareholder. I estimate that EPF's stake in YTL Corp has reduced to probably just 1% or lower after relentless selling in past few weeks. It has made a mistake in selling YTL too early, now making another mistake in selling YTLP.

Whatever it is selling has been morked up by a bigger foreign fund, looking at the last minute buy volume of over 5 million just now that pushed YTLP to close at day high of 1.36.

Soon when EPF is left with 1% or so stake in YTLP, we will see the share price of YTLP jumping as fiercely as YTL shares now.

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-05-31 19:50 | Report Abuse

Maybe temasek buying lols

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-05-31 22:01 | Report Abuse

Epf is actively trading, n will profit take at 10% returns...biggest punter 🤣

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-05-31 22:14 | Report Abuse

DSAI directed EPF local investment allocation increase by 7% to 70% another RM 60b....so you will see EPF super actively trading in Bursa.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-05-31 22:16 | Report Abuse

YTLP current price based on Q1 2023 earnings sud b Rm2...do u will see a run up quickly to Rm 2.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-05-31 22:24 | Report Abuse

As we know , stock prices is futuristic.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-05-31 22:27 | Report Abuse

Ask D328 to price in further earnings

Posted by chon99 > 2023-06-01 01:16 | Report Abuse

https://www.thesundaily.my/local/anwar-wants-epf-to-increase-domestic-investment-to-70-HM10945673

Posted by chon99 > 2023-06-01 01:31 | Report Abuse

myloh123,

Thank you for pointing out what
our Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim wanted EPF to increase local investments as downloaded above.

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-06-01 08:38 | Report Abuse

May hit 1.50 before ex date dividend.

Posted by Invest_888 > 2023-06-01 10:43 | Report Abuse

EPF disposed 10 million shares, YTLP will stop to fly for a while. Mid term(1 to 3 months), I do think Ytlp share price will go up again to RM1.5 due to its earning esp in oversea i.e. Spore.

Posted by goody99 > 2023-06-01 12:04 | Report Abuse

volume not particularly big so far. Need to monitor.

Its share price has been up close to 100% and at all time high, so if people decide to sell, it is normal

Posted by mf > 2023-06-01 14:45 | Report Abuse

collect

Posted by Alwinb > 2023-06-01 16:25 | Report Abuse

Dragon, Any insight with regard to YTL PowerSeraya Pte. Limited

Linde, ST Telemedia Global Data Centres, YTL PowerSeraya and YTL Data Center to explore feasibility of using hydrogen generated power in Singapore

Posted by pang72 > 2023-06-01 17:14 | Report Abuse

Ytlpower holding well at 1.32

Posted by pang72 > 2023-06-01 17:19 | Report Abuse

Maybank tp1. 50

Posted by pang72 > 2023-06-01 19:30 | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2023/05/913506/hlib-research-optimistic-about-ytl-powers-prospects

HLG revised Tp to 2.05

Posted by pang72 > 2023-06-01 19:33 | Report Abuse

"UK Wessex Water is expected to turn around in the subsequent quarter after the tariff revision of nine per cent effective April 2023.

Posted by pang72 > 2023-06-01 19:33 | Report Abuse

Coming QR be much better including Wessex turn around

Posted by pang72 > 2023-06-01 21:15 | Report Abuse

HLIB Research has raised YTL Power's FY23-25f earnings by 25 to 84 per cent, and maintained a "BUY" with a higher target price of RM2.05, from RM1.50 previously, given the strong earnings recovery and attractive dividend yield.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-01 23:15 | Report Abuse

Becareful this counter is a darling of d pump n dump synicates...dun get caught on the wrong end.

Posted by willc48 > 2023-06-02 00:15 | Report Abuse

YTL is Hit

Posted by chon99 > 2023-06-02 00:33 | Report Abuse

At this hour of the day ( Friday 02-06-2023 12.30 a.m ,) Dow Jones and Nasdaq surge up with strong momentum.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-06-02 09:04 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
I am very impressed with your outlook on YTLPower.
I want to learn from you.
I believe you are very knowledgeable on this stock.
Please help us to project the PAT and EPS for FY 2024 (June) and FY 2025 (June) respectively so that we will know how you project the share price of YTL Power to be 5.00 by Mar 2025.
Thank you for your help.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

apologies, the timing should be like:

YTL Power should rise from current RM1.30 in May 2023 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2025.

The timing of Mar 2025 should be right as by then:
1) PowerSeraya should continue to report strong earnings due to tight supply (Keppel new plant only comes in 1H 2026)
2) Wessex will have its new water tariffs adjusted up substantially for the new 5-year regulatory period due to its enlarged RAB and to compensate the high interest rates it is suffering these 2 years from a higher WACC
3) 1st phase green data centre should have been up and running contribution new earnings stream
4) digital bank business should find its footing after 1 year of operations
5) more visibility in power export timeline to Singapore

Posted by mf > 2023-06-02 09:50 | Report Abuse

rebound

Posted by Invest_888 > 2023-06-02 10:19 | Report Abuse

Consolidating before going up.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-02 10:28 | Report Abuse

@Alwinb, I have suggested once for PowerSeraya to consider retrofitting some of its gas turbines to be able to burn green hydrogen which may be produced in Malaysia in the future, as I noticed that Keppel had already announced to go ahead with its new hydrogen-powered turbine to come in around 1H2026.

I hope PowerSeraya does look into such a possibility to see if it will be feasible to do so.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-02 10:38 | Report Abuse

@Zhuge-Liang, very roughly my projections are as follow. By FY2024, I am projecting for:

1) PowerSeraya to report similar level of PBT of around RM800 million to RM1.0 billion a quarter
2) Wessex to report normalised PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter
3) 1st phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM10-15 million per quarter, subsequent phases to contribute PBT of RM50-75m a quarter from FY2025
4) digital bank business to contribute PBT of around RM10-20 million per quarter
5) Jordan power is fully commissioned by then and contribute PBT of RM50 million per quarter

SO if we add up the above, PBT will top RM1,050 - 1,200 million per quarter, annualised to RM4.0 billion to RM4.8 billion a year.

After tax profit may be around RM3.0 billion to RM3.6 billion resulting in EPS of 35 sen to 45 sen.

Cashflows will be around RM4.0 billion a year or 50 sen per share, supporting dividend payouts of minimum 25 sen.

So at 5% dividend yield, YTLP should trade to RM5.00 per share, or at PER of 11x to 15x.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-02 10:42 | Report Abuse

The projections above are based on latest quarterly results and my own calculations of future contributions from green data centre and digital bank, don't quote me on that. I may be over bullish or under appreciating the earnings contribution just like I missed on the strong earnings of PowerSeraya.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-02 10:51 | Report Abuse

@ i guess should include loss making Yes and other ventures to be more prudence. Digital bank may not give good profit. having said this, YTL still have potential to make RM3b per year by 2025...

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-06-02 10:54 | Report Abuse

Thank you dragon328.
Very good information for my reference.
You are very kind to share information here.
I have very good faith in you.
Really appreciate your effort.

Posted by goody99 > 2023-06-02 12:16 | Report Abuse

We may have a situation like what's in the blog below:

Ranhill reported reduced profit - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/koonyewyinblog/2023-06-01-story-h-268856550-Ranhill_reported_reduced_profit_Koon_Yew_Yin

When good QR is reported, people start notice. When the company reports an exceptional QR, the hot money keep coming in. Some people expect the latest QR as the new normal. Expectation is high. Unfortunately the next QR is back to normal. Investors lose money.

PowerSeraya reported result that was beyond our wildest dream. My biggest question is whether its result can be sustained in the next QR. I read 2 analyst reports above and noticed that the analyst did not project similar EPS for next QR. I will not buy more before the next QR

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-02 16:33 | Report Abuse

@goody99, it is normal for analysts to be skeptical of the super strong Q3 of YTLP as PowerSeraya earnings were beyond my own most bullish projection. But after I back calculated, it turned out to be entirely logical for PowerSeraya to make such a gross profit of S$80/MWh during tight supply market.

As I stated before, gross generation margin averaged at S$60-80/MWh during the tight market in 2009-2013, so it is possible for generation margin to fluctuate between S$60/MWh to S$80/MWh during this tight supply market. So don't be surprised if PowerSeraya earnings get pulled back by S$30 million in Q4, that means gross generation margin softens to S$70/MWh. On the other hand, it is equally possible for gross generation margin to strengthen further to S$90/MWh which will add S$30 million of profits.

Anyway, let the number speak for itself in late August then.

Posted by Alwinb > 2023-06-02 17:27 | Report Abuse

Dragon328, YTL and Seraya Power together with industry leaders like Linde have since signed MOU in 2022 to explore feasibility of using hydrogen generated power in Singapore.
Hopefully, we see some positive updates on the above initiative soon.

Posted by chon99 > 2023-06-03 00:17 | Report Abuse

At this hour of the day (03-06-2023 Saturday 12.15 a.m. Dow Jones jumps up more than 500 points )

Posted by probability > 2023-06-04 12:47 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, would like to hear your comments on some of the conclusions i am making as per my comments on your blog here:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/dragon328/2022-12-06-story-h-303952239-YTL_Power_the_Rising_Power_in_Singapore.jsp

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-06-04 14:22 | Report Abuse

Fund Managers' ultimate DECISION is actually the reverse of what you fantasize to be real.

utilities are always 100% assigned the lowest PE possible.
In developed countries, utilities PE is always below PE6.
In some developing countries, you would be able to buy at below PE6

fantasizing about it will not make it go above PE6

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-06-04 14:24 | Report Abuse

comparing ...
fantasizing about HRC did not make it real.
parri passu
fantasizing about utilities will be same result.

Posted by GoldenBull66 > 2023-06-04 17:02 | Report Abuse

Hot weather. Leads to more power consumption. Next QR shd be good.

Posted by GoldenBull66 > 2023-06-04 19:59 | Report Abuse

UK too suffering from hot weather. More water consumption with higher tariff.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-05 10:25 | Report Abuse

若PE是10,，目前的股价已经是合理的水平，再升的几率不高，除非4QFY23又来一次惊喜。

为什么几率不高呢？FY23的三个季度，EPS已经来到11.01 sen （2.14+2.45+6.41）。若第四季的EPS正常回去，大概单季2.3-2.4 sen的水平，全年EPS会到13.5 sen。所以目前股价是正常的了。

不过，假如4QFY23再来一次的盈利爆炸，单季EPS来到6 sen或以上，让全年EPS冲到17 sen的时候，股价就会升到RM1.70，若PE是10。

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-05 10:25 | Report Abuse

问题是：来季盈利爆炸的可能性有多高呢？
我个人是预算会有再一次的盈利爆炸，所以我1.33时，已经加仓一次。
我的预算基础如下：
1. 新加坡的营业额肯定会维持同样水平或更高，因为炎热的气候，加上新加坡的经济健康。更炎热的气候，会让营业额再维持至少一个季度的可能性，是非常高的。
2．净利率有机会维持在相同水平，若和3QFY23对比。这是因为政府和发电商有2年的合约。我个人推测，这合约不会只一份。虽然不知道什么时候到期，预计还会再维持至少一两个季度。加上电供吃紧，是会推高净利率。相反地，供过于求的时候，净利率就会严重下跌（前几年的悲惨就是出于供过于求，这也证实了，电供吃紧是确保高盈利的首要要素，比政府的合约更重要，也比天然气价格更重要。这也说明了为何3QFY23会盈利爆炸，不就是出于电供吃紧吗？）。目前电供已经是吃紧的了，加上温度是持续攀高。这些都可以支撑高的净利率。
3. 上一季，英国是亏损。这一季，4QFY23是开始起价的季度，英国业务是可以由亏转盈的。
4. 约旦的启动费会耗一些资金，不过数额是无从可知。不过，也有可能会提供一些盈利也说不定。
5. YES的亏损会进一步扩大，不过YES的亏损已经是常态，预料之中。
6. 数据中心会继续烧钱，上一季也已有反映。

总结：带来盈利的业务，会继续提供同样的盈利的可能性是有的。亏损的业务，在上一季也已经是亏损的了。所以，维持6 sen一季的可能性，是有的。

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-05 10:28 | Report Abuse

再次强调：新加坡的盈利，全看电供吃不吃紧。我个人推测，电供吃紧是确保高盈利的首要要素，比政府的合约更重要，也比天然气价格更重要。所以，只要新加坡的电供持续吃紧，PS的盈利就会持续保持高位。

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-05 10:36 | Report Abuse

我在想，新加坡的电价的价格，有没有可能就像机票一样。
我们都知道，无论亚航或马航，一旦机位爆满，最后2%机位的价格是非常惊吓的。
同样的，新加坡的电供吃紧，甚至是特别紧的时候，最后2%的吃紧电供的价格，会不会也是同样非常惊吓的呢？
我觉得可能性是有的。

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-06 08:31 | Report Abuse

Well said @xiaochen.

Your analogy of Singapore electricity rates and air tickets is appropriate. Electricity prices will rise when supply is tight, and will fall when demand softens.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-06 10:50 | Report Abuse

@probability, I have put in some comments in that article trying to answer your queries

Posted by probability > 2023-06-06 10:52 | Report Abuse

thanks dragon328..its all very clear now

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-06 10:53 | Report Abuse

@i3lucker, I am afraid that you were wrong on the valuation of utilities companies.

FYI, Keppel and Sembcorp are trading at PER of 13x to 14x.

The three water utilities companies that are listed in the UK are trading at PER of over 20x.

YTLP disposed off Electranet, an utility company, at PER of over 30x.

I hope you know what you were talking about.

Just be patient, and you will get a good time to accumulate YTLP as EPF is selling aggressively now and state elections are coming soon.