Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-26 18:01 | Report Abuse

https://juristech.net/juristech/are-digital-banks-profitable/

我一路来都悲观认为，YTLP将来的数码银行，将会是第二个YES。
一个YES已经够力了，再加上另一个数码银行坑。。。
希望YTLP的数码银行越迟启动越好。

假如YTLP大马部门的能力，有A Capital团队的实力，我举手举脚赞成快快开启数码银行。
可惜，YTLP大马部门的能力，有目共睹的。。。

Posted by kcwong98 > 2023-05-27 16:17 | Report Abuse

Nu Bank of Nu Holding, Brazil's digital bank is profitable for 2 quarters already due to low costs and many products. Fast penetration rate.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-05-27 16:48 | Report Abuse

Yeah better to stick to what ytl is good at...their core biz in energy

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2023-05-27 21:50 | Report Abuse

Sell call ytlpower 1.30 range or 29-31 mei
27/5/23 9.50pm

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 11:49 | Report Abuse

YTLP is partnering SEA Group in rolling out the digital bank business in Malaysia. SEA has itself started its own digital bank business SeaMoney which reported almost 7x increase in revenue in 2021 to S$470 million. Though it is still loss making, the management expected it to be cashflow positive by 2023 when they hit revenue target of S$1.1 billion to S$1.3 billion.

Any lending business is naturally profitable, earning the difference between the lending rate and funding rate. It is just how good the bank controls its costs and loan profile.

YTL group has been known for good cost control and with the experience of SEA group, I think their digital bank venture will have good chance of making decent profits, especially when both have their own large customer base in Shopee and Yes.

Posted by cooledhawk123654 > 2023-05-28 14:30 | Report Abuse

5) New earnings contribution from green data centres from Q1 2024
6) New earnings contribution from digital bank venture from Q2 2024

Dragon 328, jz to know u mentioned

Posted by cooledhawk123654 > 2023-05-28 14:32 | Report Abuse

u mention q1 2024 is it for ytlp FYE Q1 2024??

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-28 17:07 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, can you explain how did Wessex Water make a loss due to "interest accruals on index-link bonds, a non-cash impact of RM75 million"?

How does it work? Is the loss due to "interest accurals" also get compensated in the form of higher tariff in future regulatory period?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 22:43 | Report Abuse

@cooledhawk123654, I meant Q1 calender year 2024, i.e. Jan-Mar 2024 to see earnings contribution from the first phase of green data centre

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 22:53 | Report Abuse

@observatory, I do not have any more info than you on this provision item in Wessex, besides the explanation given in the quarterly result notes.

From what I understand, Wessex has issued a few tranches of bonds, some of which may be linked to certain index (which I do not know what index it is). I suspect such bond has a yield that is linked to certain baskets of interest rates like LIBOR. When interest rates move up in the UK, such index-link bond price will fall and yield goes up. UK accounting treatment may require Wessex to mark to market such an impact from higher bond yields, hence the provision.

It is a non-cash item at the moment as it is just a reflection of higher bond yields to pay in the future. But eventually Wessex will need to pay for higher yields to the bond holders. Such higher interest payments will be captured in the next regulatory review of water tariffs to reflect on the higher costs of doing business, hence resulting in higher water tariffs to compensate for the higher interest payments made by Wessex in order to deliver the required services.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-28 23:00 | Report Abuse

Wessex just made the provision in this Jan-Mar 2023 quarter, which means that they may have missed out on adding the impact of such higher interest rates into the water tariff hikes already in effect since 1st April. If so, they may get it reflected in the next review end of the year to determine the required water tariff hike from 1st April 2024.

But I am not too sure if there is any adjustment in the quarterly review or any true-up mechanism that comes earlier than the next yearly review for 1st April 2024.

We will be able to get a sense when we see the result for next quarter April-June 2023 from Wessex.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-05-29 11:26 | Report Abuse

epf started buying last week again...

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-05-29 11:49 | Report Abuse

What is the fair price? Hmm

Posted by observatory > 2023-05-29 11:50 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, good explanation! Thanks!

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-29 12:34 | Report Abuse

Good QR in power sector.
So far the best

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-29 13:29 | Report Abuse

No doubt, SEA Group is a capable partner. What i am concern is who will lead this digital bank.
From the news i had read before, seems like YTLP has strong desire to be the boss instead of become second man.
i have no query if Sea become the leader of the digital bank.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-29 13:30 | Report Abuse

What is the fair price? Hmm...

RM2, bro.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-29 13:32 | Report Abuse

Didn‘’t expected today YTLP still got power like last friday.

Posted by sethoylo > 2023-05-29 13:33 | Report Abuse

hold tight don't sell yo gold goose no matter wat ever ppl offer u..

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-05-29 13:36 | Report Abuse

will continue up til exdate :)

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-29 13:52 | Report Abuse

This round goes for rm2 because the QR is simply too over expectations

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-29 13:53 | Report Abuse

It will not give you any fault investment in ytlp if choose wrongly.
The utility asset enough to support the share pruce

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-29 14:27 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, I remember SEA has a 60% stake in the digital bank JV while YTLP has 40%, or the other way round?

In any case, SEA has the experience and YTLP will be happy to follow and complement its strategy

Posted by chon99 > 2023-05-29 15:07 | Report Abuse

YTL twin engine powerful forces started.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-29 15:34 | Report Abuse

@dragon328
SEA has a 60% stake in the digital bank JV while YTLP has 40%,

Im not sure, really hope so.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-29 15:35 | Report Abuse

Can't imagine i top up with price 1.33...
i think i must be mad.

Posted by sethoylo > 2023-05-29 16:12 | Report Abuse

too rational can't make big money

Posted by sethoylo > 2023-05-29 16:12 | Report Abuse

too rational also can't loss big money

Posted by abc333 > 2023-05-29 16:34 | Report Abuse

sell all thanks power

Posted by Tibbers > 2023-05-29 16:54 | Report Abuse

1.40 lets go

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-29 17:07 | Report Abuse

One word - power!

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-29 19:49 | Report Abuse

Epf starts buy back ytlpower..

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-05-30 09:11 | Report Abuse

Looks like epf buy back ytl more than ytlp

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-30 11:02 | Report Abuse

Based on the latest research, market seems like giving YTLP 10 P/E.

Posted by WWCD1688 > 2023-05-30 14:21 | Report Abuse

STILL CAN BUY?

Posted by goody99 > 2023-05-30 14:54 | Report Abuse

is its share price at all time high?

Posted by Muyutin > 2023-05-30 15:34 | Report Abuse

20YEARS AGO RM5 ALL TIME HIGH
DROP TILL 55SEN CRY FATHER CRY MOTHER
BUT AVERAGE NO LOOSE LA
GIVE DIVIDEN
GIVE SHARE

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-30 17:03 | Report Abuse

@WWCD1688 STILL CAN BUY?

My answer is: Why not?
My latest top up price is Rm1.33, adding 10% shares to the stack.
And my entry price is Rm1.51.
Im still live in the penthouse, if exclude the dividend received and shares given.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-30 17:06 | Report Abuse

https://www.sinchew.com.my/20230530/%e7%8b%ae%e5%9f%8e%e6%b0%94%e8%b1%a1%e7%bd%b2%ef%bc%9a6%e6%9c%88%e8%87%b310%e6%9c%88%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%94%e6%96%99%e6%9b%b4%e7%83%ad-%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%e8%b7%a8%e5%a2%83%e7%83%9f%e9%9c%be%e9%a3%8e/

更炎热的天气，有70%的几率将在第三季袭击新加坡。这将进一步推高新加坡的用电量。
YTLP的未来一年的盈利，还是可期。

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-05-30 17:08 | Report Abuse

Forcast EPS FY2023 14.6 sens
DY 5%, 7 sens dividend.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-30 21:15 | Report Abuse

ya the current heat wave in Singapore will push up electricity consumption. As I mentioned in the article, it is not surprising for the generation gross margin to sustain at S$60 - 80/MWh during tight supply period, like it was the case during 2009-2013.

But I do hope PowerSeraya can sustain the gross margin of S$80/MWh achieved in Q3. There will be a gross profit impact of S$30-60m if generation gross margin drifts down to S$60-70/MWh for Q4.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-31 11:26 | Report Abuse

A simple comparison of Press Metal vs YTL Power:

PMetal YTLPower
No of shares 8.24 bn 8.16 bn
Market cap RM38.8 bn RM10.5 bn
Latest Q net profit RM275 m RM520 m
EPS last Q 3.34 sen 6.37 sen
Annualised EPS 13.4 sen 25.5 sen
PER 35.1x 5.1x

If the market can give a valuation of 35x PER to PMetal which has a commodity-based business, then it is highly possible for the market to eventually give a valuation of 20x PER to YTLPower which has recession-proof utilities business.

YTLPower should gradually trade up to RM5.20 per share at PER of 20x and market cap of RM40 billion to catch up with the current market cap of PMetal

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-31 11:33 | Report Abuse

PMetal has taken some 20 months to rise 3x from RM2.00 in May 2020 to RM6.00 in Jan 2022 and peak at RM7.00 in Mar 2022.

Expect YTLPower to follow suit to rise 3x from current RM1.30 in May 2022 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2024.

Posted by rchi > 2023-05-31 11:59 | Report Abuse

Dragon328,appreciate all the work you have done.

Posted by rchi > 2023-05-31 12:05 | Report Abuse

Best for this stock is it derived most income from spore,n is less affected by weak msian economy.The strengthening sgd is a double bonus.

Posted by rchi > 2023-05-31 12:06 | Report Abuse

investing in ytlp acts as a hedge to weak ringgit as well

Posted by rchi > 2023-05-31 12:11 | Report Abuse

tenaga's pe is 14 times,imagine if ytlp is to attain pe 14 or even pe 7.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-31 12:23 | Report Abuse

apologies, the timing should be like:

YTL Power should rise from current RM1.30 in May 2023 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2025.

The timing of Mar 2025 should be right as by then:
1) PowerSeraya should continue to report strong earnings due to tight supply (Keppel new plant only comes in 1H 2026)
2) Wessex will have its new water tariffs adjusted up substantially for the new 5-year regulatory period due to its enlarged RAB and to compensate the high interest rates it is suffering these 2 years from a higher WACC
3) 1st phase green data centre should have been up and running contribution new earnings stream
4) digital bank business should find its footing after 1 year of operations
5) more visibility in power export timeline to Singapore

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-05-31 14:41 | Report Abuse

What is the estimated profit for green data centre?
It is quite certain PowerSeraya will make explosive profit in next quarter due to hot weather..

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-05-31 15:44 | Report Abuse

Due to heat wave and current tight supply market, PowerSeraya will make strong profit for this Q4 quarter. I will be very happy if it can maintain the gross profit margin as in Q3, i.e. a Profit Before Tax of S$230 million a quarter.

As for green data centre, it is a volume game. As the capex requirement is huge at RM1.5 bn for just the 1st phase of 48MW, so you would imagine equity cashflows may be sizable at about RM50 m in first 10 years then jump to RM200 million a year after the debt is fully repaid.