Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-14 13:13 | Report Abuse

SGD = RM 3.46
Pound = RM 5.82

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-14 13:18 | Report Abuse

https://www.geneco.sg/

YTL seraya marketing division, Geneco, have many marketing strategy to grab Singapore electricity market share, promotion and rebate through many bundle package to lock in customer for 6 month, 12 month and 24 month and rebate through auto bill with credit card

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-06-14 14:19 | Report Abuse

I would love to add for YTLP in my portfolio but I hesitate as don't want to increase my low buy in price as this share is long term for me

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-06-14 14:21 | Report Abuse

should have allocated more funds earlier and bought a bigger slice way back last uear

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2023-06-14 14:23 | Report Abuse

this is a good dividend stock for me as well

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-14 21:42 | Report Abuse

Me too...each time i added it went down...so dun want to rock d boat...jus file away as long term investments 😁

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-14 21:43 | Report Abuse

I wun sell until rm 4.60.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-15 11:29 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gub5sEASrvA
This is a historic date for Jordan, the Attarat Power Plant commenced it's Facility commercial operation, both units have since under NEPCO dispatch supplying energy to the national grid on 30th May 2023, making it the first solid fuel power plant in Jordan to harness the potential of Attarat low quality oil shale as a source of energy for next 25 years and beyond. Our Story started from 2006 and the achievement is a breakthrough since it is not only setting a new industry standards but also reinforcing Jordan's commitment in ensuring energy independency for future.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-15 11:46 | Report Abuse

hng33, thanks for the video on Attarat Power. Fantastic achievement and world class facilities.

It is the largest oil-share fired power plant in Middle East and Asia, which burns indigeneous fuel for decades to come.

That makes me believe that Jordan needs this power plant and the ongoing arbitration case will be favourable to YTLP.

30 years of concession of oil-share mining and power generation with option to extend for another 10 years or more. The video says that Jordan has the 7th largest oil share reserve in the world and the reserve may last probably for 100 years. This pave the way for a new project or extension project for YTLP after this first project takes off well.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-15 11:46 | Report Abuse

Attarat oil shale-fired power station officially started commercial operation in Jordan on Friday, marking the full operation of Guangdong Energy Group's first overseas mining and power joint venture. The project, which uses local oil shale resources as fuel, cost more than $2.1 billion, including two 277 megawatt recirculating units and support for the oil shale mine, whose an annual output is more than 10 million metric ton
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202305/31/WS6477022ba3107584c3ac32da.html

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-15 12:02 | Report Abuse

YTLP hold a 45% stake, its equity portion of the Jordan project worth US$225m. The project is estimate to generate a mid- to high-teen internal rate of return + additional gross margin 5% on shale mining, total profit is estimate around RM 200m pa or additional yield accretion EPS = + 2.5sen

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-15 12:20 | Report Abuse

The US$2.1 billion project is financed via 25:75 debt to equity, where US$1.3 billion of credit is provided by a syndicate of Chinese banks for a tenure of 15 years. Such short tenure of financing 15 year vs. 30 year power purchase agreement + 10 year extension offer ample of opportunity for YTL to opt for refinancing, allowing more cash payout in future

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2023-06-15 13:46 | Report Abuse

Price 1.30
Support if cant a further dive
15/6/23 1.45pm

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-15 16:12 | Report Abuse

刚刚看了马币的汇率，今天马币又再贬。
新币兑马币 3.45
英镑兑马币 5.86
美金兑马币 4.63 （约旦）

若继续这样贬下去，马币真是没眼看咯。

Posted by lotuseater > 2023-06-15 16:15 | Report Abuse

Here we go again with our dear @ Michael kwok giving his unsolicited advice.

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-16 15:25 | Report Abuse

hmnn USB substantial Shareholder of YTL. How about YTP Power? still holding strong at 1.30

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-16 16:03 | Report Abuse

8th among 30 largest shareholders

HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd
– Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited
253,278,119 （3.13%）
Annual report 2022, pg 104

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 16:24 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, did you mean YTLPower or YTL for Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) as the 8th largest shareholder?

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 16:25 | Report Abuse

I think you meant YTLPower, as it was just announced this morning Credit Suisse had a 4.6% stake in YTL, plus another 0.8% held by UBS

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-16 16:54 | Report Abuse

yes, found in the annual report of ytl power.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-16 16:56 | Report Abuse

Same owner listed as 3rd shareholder among YTL 30 largest shareholder.
HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd– Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited
506,561,781 (4.62%)
YTL Annual report 2022, pg 74.

Posted by Icon 888 > 2023-06-16 17:24 | Report Abuse

Dato pang - contra king

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-17 10:06 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, ya I also checked. Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) first appeared as a shareholder of YTL Power with a 3.10% stake in AR2019, which means it acquired the stake between Sept 2018 and Sept 2019. The share price of YTLP was trading between RM0.90 to RM1.30 during this period, so the average purchase price of Credit Suisse (HK) should be in this range.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-17 13:50 | Report Abuse

Wow took 5 years for ytlpower to rebound. I only bought ytlp in year 2019 before d pandemic.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-17 13:51 | Report Abuse

How about the balance 1.5%?

Posted by wahidul > 2023-06-18 15:26 | Report Abuse

switched all my YTLP to YTL last Friday,as YTL is getting very much attention and momentum,UBS substantial shareholder,more than 5%,BPLANT selling land to YTL rumours flying around,its great time to hold the mother share,10 million shares being snapped up in the last 10minutes last Friday,something much more brewing in YTL,fingers crossed,hope to see prices above RM1 next week

Posted by yewnamhung > 2023-06-19 16:37 | Report Abuse

YTL Power International Bhd
Target price: RM2.05 BUY


HONG LEONG INVESTMENT BANK RESEARCH (JUNE 6): YTLP reported a record quarterly core Patami in 3QFY23 at RM477.8 million, which accelerated 9MFY23’s to RM984.9 million (+5.1 times y-o-y). The strong performance was mainly driven by its subsidiary Singapore PowerSeraya’s realisation of higher average retail electricity tariffs (on a higher percentage of renewed contract rates and also an increase in market rates), while fuel gas costs stayed low.

Management guided the strong performance of the Singapore subsidiary to be sustainable for the next three years, mainly due to: (i) tight power generation capacity conditions in the market; (ii) ended take-or-pay liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts for the whole market in 2022; (iii) secured long-term cheap LNG supply contracts; (iv) increased percentage of renewed retail electricity sales contracts with higher tariffs; and (v) a new contribution from the Tuaspring combined-cycle power plant. In 3QFY23, the subsidiary reported a historical high quarterly PBT of RM806.4 million with a margin of 19.6%. With the ongoing heat wave across the country and the increasing renewal of retail contracts, we expect a stronger performance in the coming quarter. After the management briefing, we remain upbeat on YTLP’s prospects as management guided earnings sustainability for the next three years.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2023-06-19 17:03 | Report Abuse

Monday 19 June 2023: For one whole day, YTLP try to defend the RM1.29/1.30. Finally, it managed to close at RM1.30.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-19 18:23 | Report Abuse

Singapore to End 3,000% Power Price Spikes That Sank Companies
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/671712?utm_source=Newswav&utm_medium=Website

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-19 18:27 | Report Abuse

果然是这样。
当供电非常紧的时候，最后的2%电费是超级超级高昂。

新加坡政府确实是需要对这样的情况作出策略性的调整。这机制就好像亚航马航的最后2%的机票一样，贵得超级离谱。

看来，来季将会是PS最后一次呈现暴利的季报了。

Posted by probability > 2023-06-19 18:28 | Report Abuse

Last month, prices reached as high as S$3,594 ($2,685) a megawatt-hour in daily trading after a power plant at Jurong Island shut for a turbine upgrade amid unusually hot weather. Meanwhile, the cost of LNG has fallen 86% since March 2022.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-19 18:29 | Report Abuse

相信成熟的新加坡政府应该只会对最后的超级暴利率来下手。

Posted by ChloeTai > 2023-06-19 20:32 | Report Abuse

xiaochen,
It is as expected. When the power supply is very tight, the last 2% of the electricity bill is super super expensive.

The Singapore government really needs to make strategic adjustments to this situation. This mechanism is like the last 2% of air tickets of AirAsia Malaysia Airlines, which is extremely expensive.

It seems that the coming season will be the last quarterly report of PS showing huge profits.
I believe that the mature Singaporean government should only start with the final super violent interest rate.

Posted by ChloeTai > 2023-06-19 20:35 | Report Abuse

Xiaochen,
I don't know Mandarin. So, I use Google Translate.
I am very worry now. What is the meaning of "PS"?
Will it affect the profit of YTL and YTLPOWER?

Posted by donnybelowski > 2023-06-19 20:56 | Report Abuse

Hahaha


xiaochen
Singapore to End 3,000% Power Price Spikes That Sank Companies
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/671712?utm_source=Newswav&utm_medium=Website
2 hours ago

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-19 22:46 | Report Abuse

The EMA could try to regulate the wholesale electricity prices which shot up to over S$3,500/MWh during peak hours, but that would not affect Gencos' profits much as Gencos tend to hedge the electricity selling prices with their retailers, bypassing the volatility of the wholesale pool prices.

The Singapore government could try to build new power generation capacity on its own but it would go against the free market principle of liberalising the power market in the first place. If it built too much capacity, then it would crash the electricity prices and make Gencos losing profits or making losses then foreign investors in these Gencos would just leave the market as the rule of the game has changed, which might dent the image of Singapore government who would be the only generator in town. Singapore government knows the bad consequences for which it will pay a much higher economic price for disrupting free market principles.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-19 22:55 | Report Abuse

What they should do and what the industry players should agree to is to cap the wholesale electricity prices to a lower upper limit currently at S$5,000/MWh. They could agree to cap it at say S$2,500/MWh or even S$1,000/MWh, it does not matter and it will not affect Gencos' profit much.

What it will do is effectively capping any spikes in wholesale electricity prices to the lower cap price say S$2,000/MWh. So the headlines news that said wholesale prices hit above S$3,500/MWh during peak hours will only recur at a lower price of S$2,000/MWh. Immediately the headline increase in weighted average wholesale prices is capped at a more reasonable figure, rather than this 3,000% rise in the news above.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-19 23:03 | Report Abuse

Take an example to illustrate:

Say when the supply is tight and wholesale electricity prices hit the max upper price of S$5,000/MWh during 5% of the time in a month like June. The average wholesale prices at normal hours are below S$300/MWh. The effect of having 5% of the time hitting max upper limit price is substantial:

(S$5,000 - 300) x 5% x 720h / 720h = S$235/MWh rise in weighted average wholesale price or over 80% rise in monthly average wholesale price.

If they cap the upper limit price to S$1,000/MWh, then the overall impact of having 5% time hitting the upper limit will be considerably lower:

(S$1,000 - 300) x 5% = S$35/MWh rise or just 12% rise in weighted average wholesale price

In any event, Gencos' profit will not be impacted much as they tend to hedge the electricity selling price with their respective retailer to bypass the volatility of the wholesale prices.

Posted by InvestMsia > 2023-06-19 23:17 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 do you know the % breakdown of Seraya’s hedge and spot sales?

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 09:17 | Report Abuse

Market sentiment affected by Singapore Energy Market Authority will cap wholesale power prices from July 1 using a formula tied to natural gas and generation costs, may reduce YTLP profit margin forward

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-20 09:18 | Report Abuse

previously HLA report stated profit will be maintained due to low gas price contract purchased previously...now upside is capped means profit is lower. i am not sure if all retailer will sign fixed contract or not, or the coming contract price will be lower. unless YTL Power do daily hedge back to back with retailer then the volatility might be lower.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-20 09:25 | Report Abuse

Still need to wait for the new regulation detail to come out.
We will see this impact during 1QFY24.

As for me, it just delayed a bit the pace reaching 20 EPS yearly.

The overall profitability still intact.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-20 09:31 | Report Abuse

@CloeTai PS, Power Seraya

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-20 09:31 | Report Abuse

See how many holders' FAITH survives this test...

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 09:32 | Report Abuse

For YTLP, The important upcoming formula is based on natural gas and generation costs, eliminate non fuel margin (which highly subject to market manipulate that causing extreme energy volatility now). YTLP current extreme high margin of 20% now may reduce to reasonable 12-15% forward.

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 09:35 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 Price cap for SG electricity for pool market is $4500 /MWh not $5000 MWh.
Your analysis has been useful and i will like to thank you for it.

I think many people are selling, so i will thank all the sellers in advance. I will follow the buy and hold YTLP as i am optimistic of their financials. If you think about it, this news from EMA means what ? It means that the gencos like YTLP have been making so much money until the governement has to step in. And electricity cannot be so high profits from the gencos to prevent singapore economy from being impacted. So no choice, government has to put on the breaks like property prices in Singapore.

So this price cap news should not be viewed negatively in such a manner but not many people will believe. So it is ok, i will continue to hold and let the results in Aug show for itself

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-20 09:37 | Report Abuse

For sure, Power Seraya profit margin will reduce.
But OVERALL YTLP business still in well position, isn't it?

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-20 09:42 | Report Abuse

I would think more power generator players in SG will be washed out...Margin impacted and limited upside, but longer term, YTL Power might be getting a bigger share of the power business in Sg. to soften the blow, guess attarat new revenue stream can fill the gap. Hopefully YTL power can initiate a buy back now lols...

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 09:43 | Report Abuse

@alex chua - Power generation players in SG washed out ? Why ? This is a cap to the pool price market. Not the retail market. If you are not familiar with the pool price and retail markets dynamics in SG gencos, then please research a bit before you make such a statement

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 09:46 | Report Abuse

Market dislike uncertainty on Singapore energy to introduce new formula to calculate wholesale energy in July. but, for certainty profit margin will be reduce as it is based on fuel + cost formula. However, strength in Sgd dollar may mitigate the impact on margin