Posted by Jaeger > 2023-06-20 09:46 | Report Abuse

Which fund is dumping both Ytl and ytlpower?

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-20 09:50 | Report Abuse

@chessgame99, singapore Gov wanna built own generators if private cannot take the risk. when private enterprise vs gov, it's not business anymore is communism or back to state own enterprise.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 09:50 | Report Abuse

As I said earlier, Gencos' profit will not be impacted much even if the wholesale electricity prices are capped at a lower upper limit from currently S$4,500/MWh (thanks @chessgame99 for the correction).

As I studied before, PowerSeraya tend to hedge almost 100% of its generation output with its retailer, completely bypassing the volatility of the wholesale market prices.

The lower wholesale electricity prices will mean lower fixed priced retails contracts' price as well, but it does not necessarily mean the non-fuel margin will be lower. As I explained earlier, due to the lower LNG prices now, the reduction in the fuel portion of the electricity prices is more than enough to offset against the decent non-fuel margin.

All in, I expect Gencos' profit margin to maintain going forward until a new generating capacity to come in, expected to be in 2H2026.

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 09:53 | Report Abuse

@alex chua - you may need to read how the sg gov plans to build their generators. Are they planning to cap pool price or retail price. Like i said, understand the difference between retail vs pool. I doubt SG gov is planning to use their new capacity to sell to the retail market. That is not the plan. For the record, i think SG gov building these new capacity is super bad news for SG consumers. They just dont know it yet. Cos who in the world is paying for this new capacity ? SG governement ? dream on. it is a cost that will be channelled back to SG consumers.

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-20 09:53 | Report Abuse

YTLP will recover in the afternoon. Best time to load it up.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 09:53 | Report Abuse

It is a healthy correction now for YTLP share price that has gone up in past few months. It will aim to wash out weak holders and short term traders but it presents a good opportunity for long term investors to gain entry into this deep-value stock at cheaper prices.

Posted by Kicapmanis > 2023-06-20 09:57 | Report Abuse

Catched a falling knife at 1.24 now bleeding lei. Should have wait for price to even out first

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 09:58 | Report Abuse

I think the only person i really appreciate in this forum is dragon328. His analysis especially on the overseas biz for YTLP is very useful for me. He is quite good or among the best i have seen so far from the research team that understands the utilities market dynamics and what i do from due diligence in this market as well.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 09:58 | Report Abuse

For Singapore government to step in and build new power generation capacity, it will not be as efficient as by private experienced players like YTL and Keppel. It will go against the original intention of liberalising the power market in 2006-2008 and introducing the competitive wholesale electricity market. It will not give confidence to foreign investors in the power sector as well as in other sectors like IT, infrastrature, port, energy etc. The long term economic damage will be far greater than trying to save electricity prices for 1-2 years.

They will achieve the goal by introducing a cap on wholesale electricity prices, which will be easier and more effective in controlling spikes in electricity prices that spook businesses and households, not the steady retail electricity prices.

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-20 10:01 | Report Abuse

YTLP is a perfect stock if you believe in Singapore long term growth. Perfect time for long term holders now to invest in it.

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 10:04 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 - for efficiency of machines - I think SG gov can be as good or even better. But the problem is commercial running of this as baseload. How to maintain it and what capacity and will it breach market rules. If they run at baseload, how will they sustain it without making sg consumers bear too much a cost .. All these factors makes the sg gov work very difficult. Also please note that sg gov does not have a retailer license. So cannot sell direct to household ? can they sell to SP power a related gov - possible. But it will have to open tender competition. If it is not an open tender competition, then how will they price it ? And if the sg gov plant itself has any forced outage, what happens ? is the SG gov willing to set in to "pay the difference" for the pool price spike vs the contracted price ? Wow... i dunno man... So it is all these complications that makes me laugh and wonder how all this will work. But i see the end game and view that all in all, gencos like YTL P etc can adjust their position. SG consumers cannot and they will be one bearing this additional "regulator" tool . It should be debated but i know this is a tough topic so unless an insider from the industry speaks out, then this kind of issues will never be surfaced

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 10:09 | Report Abuse

Anyway, any new build in SG will take at least 3 year. So for now, this move by the gov is just like the ABSD in SG property market. A regulatory tool but cannot impact fundamentals of demand and supply of capacity . That part - the market will have to sort it out internally with all these new regulations

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-20 10:15 | Report Abuse

anyhow just loaded more at 1.18... ppl will forget today in 3weeks time hahaaa

Posted by troy88 > 2023-06-20 10:18 | Report Abuse

good knee jerk effect to get rid of short term gamblers

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-20 10:21 | Report Abuse

YTL Power looks to grow RE ambitions

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/20/ytl-power-looks-to-grow-re-ambitions

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-20 10:34 | Report Abuse

Im long, rain or shine...solid as a rock.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-20 10:41 | Report Abuse

RE biz is the way to go. Now ppl buy cheap agri land for RE instead of property development which is far more lucrative.

Posted by myloh123 > 2023-06-20 10:42 | Report Abuse

Hope YTLP wins d bid.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 10:51 | Report Abuse

All YTLP solar farm and building Data center are awarded directly to YTL construction and source all building material from YTL cement and building material division

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 10:56 | Report Abuse

YTLP is assets owner with upfront acquire land cost and cover construction cost with banking borrowing. On the other hand, YTL construction and YTL cement and building material division under YTL corp are the builder and supplier to profit upfront in initial stage of construction and enjoy later once completed through subsidiary YTLP for recurring income.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-20 10:59 | Report Abuse

overact...mkt has yet to price in Jordan power plant and data centre profit.
At current price certainly only price in normal profit from Power Seraya, but not extra ordinary profit last few months due to hot weather.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 11:03 | Report Abuse

@chessgame99, Singapore government can install the most efficient CCGT in Singapore but the question is how they are going to run the business and sell electricity to consumers. The key question is whether the government itself should get into this power business and disrupt free market rules. If they do that, it will send a wrong message to foreign investors. I would imagine that it would be a tall order for Singapore to get any RE import by 2035 if they enter the market and disrupt market rules just like that. Who wants to commit any investment in Singapore to build any new capacity or bring in RE if foreign investors are spooked that Singapore government can anytime come in and disrupt market rules and make them lose out their investment capital. I think this is a serious question Singapore government needs to consider.

A few years back when oil prices were very high, a lot of consumers complained about the high vesting contract price (which was used as a benchmark price for MSSL to supply electricity to small household consumers). EMA then conducted a few rounds of industry consultation and finally they withstood the methodology used in deriving the vesting contract price. I think this round the outcome will be the same.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-20 11:05 | Report Abuse

@dragon, Good points. Bloomberg news also report EMA will engage with stakeholders of utilities players for engagement. Hope they can raise these points. They should appoint you as advisor...😄

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 12:04 | Report Abuse

There are many power experts in the industry that EMA can consult with. More importantly the CEO and chiefs of Gencos in Singapore are all veterans in this power industry. PowerSeraya is headed by a CEO who has over 30 years of experience in this field. I am confident they know how to play this game and provide proper industry feedback to the EMA in order to achieve some outcome that is win win for all.

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 14:27 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 We are aligned. SG gov can build more efficient machines. The commercial aspect of managing that will the challenge. I am sure they will engage highly paid consultants that will give them inputs. Ha ha.


On your point of vesting contract - i am not sure if i understood your point. Is your point - a. Consumers are willing to accept vesting price and the methodology ? or b. The gov will use the vesting contract to sell electricity to their own generator ?

If it is (a) - Well , i will put it this way... Everyone wants cheaper price. If the whole market goes on vesting price when it is cheaper and when it is more expensive, everyone wants to go retail... Will there really be retail market ? Gencos are not that silly to keep retail market moving anymore if this is the situation. SG market is also very small. Once one of the major player exits or ceases to function - i think the market dynamics will instantly change. We saw that when the independent retailers exited the market and that brought about the profit for gencos.

If your point is (b), i dunno. It is possible but i think this does not mean lesser headache for the gov. Remember, the gov does not want to fund this. If they do this on a prolong basis, then SG gov has basically gone the same route as the transport - ie delist SMRT. What is the outcome of that : We are now seeing no bus for schools and no drivers for our buses as the transport companies cannot cope with the increased demand and cost .. Something will give way so and this will require a lot of gov intervention...

So all in all, a lot of headache for sg gov .. so maybe that is why they are all so highly paid.. ha ha

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 14:32 | Report Abuse

YTLP only interest in Boustead plantation landbank in West Malaysia, particular balance estate locate in Johor or Pahang with aim to redevelop it into solar farm cum data center with advantage close proximate to Singapore target export energy market. Boustead majority land in actual locate in Sabah and Sarawak are actual interest by IOI which can complement its own estate for greater scale economic.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-20 14:57 | Report Abuse

The Bloomberg article's already mentioned they have find best way to address this issue of high price which two years ago led to the bankruptcy of few players...

The regulator has been consulting with industry players and utilities on the best way to mitigate the jumps, which two years ago led to the bankruptcy of a slew of independent retailers. The volatility has also made utilities reluctant to invest in more generation capacity that would alleviate shortages, according to the EMA.

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 15:38 | Report Abuse

@valueinvestor 88 i only know of hyflux that went bankrupt for the gencos. There are only 6 key Gencos in SG. YTLP , Senoko, PLP, Tuas Power, Keppel and Sembcorp. The rest are very much smaller or small plants serving their own requirements eg shell or exxon

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 15:43 | Report Abuse

Nevertheless, because i am long position, i will also say this, today is really a good day for those who short sell. But i dont think there were many. Most (i think) are just cutting losses as mentioned. Or maybe also taking profits. It had a good run up for a quite a while.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-20 16:26 | Report Abuse

According to the Singapore Energy Market Authority, the temporary price cap, the parameters of which will be in place until a review in the third quarter of 2025, will be tied to generation costs.

Under existing mechanisms, the energy price cap in place stood at S$4,500 (RM15,557) per megawatt-hour. The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%, according to simulations published in the final determination on the mechanism that was released June 16.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/671809

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 16:31 | Report Abuse

The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%.....These reduction will well cover back from just strengthening sgd currency by 4.5% Q1 RM 3.25 to Q2 RM 3.45

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 16:33 | Report Abuse

@xiaochen, this is exactly my point. Based on EMA's simulation, the price cap will see an average reduction of 3.6% to 8.1% in USEP which is the headline electricity prices that spiked up last month. It will not impact the retail electricity prices which tend to be more long term of 6 months to 2 years duration. What the EMA is trying to address is the spiking wholesale prices or USEP that made headlines, not to curb retail electricity prices which have not seen any spike but in fact have been trending down following the weakening LNG prices.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 16:35 | Report Abuse

Currency factor is too good for YTLP as both Sgd strengthen by 4.5% in Q2 and pound strengthen by 8% in Q2 vs. Q1. The u.k business will revert back from loss to profit due to traffic hike by 9% + strengthen pound

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 16:38 | Report Abuse

@chessgame99, you didn't get my point on the vesting contract price. What I wanted to point out was that last time when the EMA conducted an industry consultation to try to review the methodology that derived the vesting contract price, they eventually did not make any change after getting feedback from the industry players. So they made sensible decisions.

The vesting contract price is determined every quarter based on prevailing gas prices and forex rates, and it was used to determine the electricity selling price that the incumbent retailer MSSL used to sell to small households in Singapore.

It has nothing to do with this round of changes on wholesale price cap, but rather it shows the EMA does get feedback from industry players before making sensible decisions.

Posted by juon > 2023-06-20 16:42 | Report Abuse

tomorrow they will come out reports, price cap negligible, rush to buy again......

standard operating procedure....

today sell 1st because assessment takes time as the reason , topkek

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-20 16:50 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 salute to you.

Posted by Kicapmanis > 2023-06-20 17:03 | Report Abuse

What a day. Hoping for better tomorrow for both ytland ytlp.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 17:08 | Report Abuse

sentiment rules the day, but over longer term, fundamentals prevail...

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-20 17:16 | Report Abuse

@InvestMsia, to be honest I don't know, but based on past practice, PowerSeraya tends to hedge 99% - 100% of their generation output with its retailer, and not to game over short term price volatility in the wholesale spot market.

Posted by juon > 2023-06-20 17:27 | Report Abuse

operator want to move it down, retailers cannot do anything la...just accept the hard fact.

They play forward gear, we play forward gear. They play gostan, we also play gostan la. Going against the current = mati katak.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 17:59 | Report Abuse

Consumers can choose to buy electricity from the wholesale electricity market. In doing so, they will be paying for electricity at prices that vary every half-hour, depending on the demand and supply situation in the market. This is known as the Wholesale Electricity Price (WEP).

The WEP would typically rise due to reasons such as an increase in electricity demand and/or an outage of power generating units.

Consumers are advised to consider the WEP plan carefully given that the electricity rate that they pay is uncertain and volatile. In the recent months of 2023, wholesale electricity prices have remained elevated and volatile. Consumers who are buying electricity at wholesale prices could pay significantly more for their electricity, compared to those buying electricity via a retail contract with an electricity retailer or at the regulated tariff from SP Group (if applicable).

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 18:01 | Report Abuse

Power seraya have own retail market its own generation to end consumer via retail contract range 6 month to 2 year. Therefore, its earning is locked ahead

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 18:03 | Report Abuse

Power seraya is one stop power producer from source fuel, fuel storage, power generation to electric retailer to sell contract electric to end consumer

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 18:11 | Report Abuse

The skyrocket in wholesale power price only will affect those independent electricity retailers without own self power generation as a result of their inability to hedge against the price volatility on the spot market.

These retailers work by buying electricity on the wholesale market and selling it in "package deals" to households. The high volatile wholesale price will force those independent retailer in loss making position if insufficient hedge and possess none power generation.

Power seraya on the other hand is one stop from power generation, wholesale power to own retail seller to end user is hedging its profit naturally

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 18:23 | Report Abuse

Power seraya in short derive dual souce of income

1. Retail electricity tariffs through lock in contract 6 month to 2 year to end user. These part give assurance profit margin as long as LNG fuel price stay at current low level. If fuel gas cost tumbling further, the lock in contract with end user will give power seraya extra windfalll profit due to locked in contract

2. Aside selling electricity to ita own retailer, any excess electricity generated will channel to open pool market at average wholesale rate which fluctuate every half hour to get spot price

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-20 18:26 | Report Abuse

My regret here is that I didn't sell more @ 1.30 on the ex-divvy date...

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-20 18:27 | Report Abuse

Keppel share price also dropped 5% today. Don't know also affected by sentiment...

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-20 18:33 | Report Abuse

Keppel already rose from S$5.15 to a high of S$7.20 on Friday. Classic gap-covering completed.

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-20 19:08 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 - Ok so i get your point of vesting contract is that EMA does consultation with industry players?

Honestly, i wont bet on that. EMA will just do what EMA thinks is best to achieve their objectives.

For example - you may wish to see how EMA handled the electricity futures "consultation" when it was launched and where that has led to now. What a waste of tax payers monies.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-20 20:31 | Report Abuse

Currently, YTL seraya retailer unit, Geneco, offer retail electricity traffic rate is 28.9sen/kwh.

But, the wholesale electricity rate is 450/ Mwh or 45sen/kwh.

Therefore, those independent retailers or government agency SP retailer without own power generation need to buy expensive from wholesale market to supply electricity to its end user at hefty loss if didn't hedge their position significantly.

However, for power seraya with own genco market retailer, it locked in margin through own power generation to meet it contract end user.
The excess power power then only channel to wholesale market to fetch high but volatile spot wholesale price rate.