Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-21 15:51 | Report Abuse

The Edge Singapore | EMA’s energy price cap to have ‘minimal impact’ on Citi’s forecast for Sembcorp
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/emas-energy-price-cap-have-minimal-impact-citis-forecast-sembcorp

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-06-21 15:53 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 thank you so much!!!

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-21 16:03 | Report Abuse

As of May 2022, 8.4% of new cars registered in Singapore were electric. In September 2022, EV registrations was about 19% of all new car registrations. By the end of 2022, there were 6,531 electric vehicles registered in Singapore, equivalent to 0.65% of all vehicles in the country.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-21 16:37 | Report Abuse

These year 2023, BYD surpass tesla as top seller EV car in Singapore. Each EV consume 40 kWh per charging, average 4 time a month, is equivalent to about 50-60% electric consumption for Singapore average monthly household.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 10:50 | Report Abuse

Singapore is leading the EV charging infrastructure with 1,800 public charging outlets accessible across the country and plans to add 60,000 charging sites by 2030.

Singapore government promotes vehicle manufacturers for vehicle electrification by announcing that new electric vehicles and taxis registered between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2023 would receive a 45% rebate off the additional registration fees (ARF) tax. Such incentive helps to enhance the sale of electric vehicles across the country during the forecast period.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 10:56 | Report Abuse

In June 2022, The government of Singapore proposed laws to regulate electric vehicle charging in Singapore. Under this proposal, all new buildings with carparks must install electric vehicle charging points in at least 1 percent of their total car and motorcycle parking space,

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 11:30 | Report Abuse

YTL PowerSeraya retail brand – Geneco, is Singapore No. 1 residential electricity retailer under contract range 6 to 2year lock in electricity traffic to ensure steady profit margin

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 11:34 | Report Abuse

YTL PowerSeraya EV charging brand – ChargEco, have won a tender from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) to build charging points at Housing & Development Board (HDB) carparks in the Central and East regions of Singapore. Chargo also expand to deliver charging services at private premises, such as condominiums, shopping malls, commercial buildings and industrial parks

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 11:43 | Report Abuse

YTL PowerSeraya, Green data center brand - YTL Data Center Holdings, is actively conduct feasibility of using clean hydrogen to power the data centre ecosystem in Singapore. Hydrogen fuel is highly viable if compared to solar power which require large tract of land. Hydrogen fuel is highly suitable green energy to power up Singapore base green data center, reduce carbon tax,

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 11:49 | Report Abuse

YTL PowerSeraya also actively conduct feasibility to set up first green e-methanol plant which converts captured biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) into green e-methanol, a low carbon fuel, that could enable a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The pilot plant will be set up in Singapore with a minimum capacity of 50,000 tons per annum (TPA), and will be the first of its kind in Southeast Asia.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 11:51 | Report Abuse

In summary, YTL seraya plan to be one stop energy solution, capitalize full cycle in both fuel and non fuel power generation to transform captured biogenic CO2 and green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity into green e-methanol and making this low carbon fuel commercially accessible for the maritime industry.

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-22 15:58 | Report Abuse

ytlpower losing traction...mother YTL rebounding nicely :)

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 16:05 | Report Abuse

Today, SGD breaking another record RM 3.47 !!!

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 16:06 | Report Abuse

Today, pound breaking another record RM 5.94 !!!

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-22 16:12 | Report Abuse

Today, USD RM 4.65, on track to break previous record high at RM 4.75, just 10 sen closer to record breaking

( USD base profit from 20% jawa power, 97% YTL cement Langkawi export hub and 45% Jordan power plant)

Posted by goody99 > 2023-06-23 00:30 | Report Abuse

the upcoming policies/initiatives Rafizi talked about at Qatar Economic Forum a month ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t38064JMV0Q

News from Bernama:
https://www.bernama.com/en/business/news.php?id=2192487

I also found another video that talked about the highlight of Rafizi's speech (Mandarin)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OmBMh9_Oqw

I am surprised to learn something related to renewable energy:

"In the next few months Malaysia will launch a regional renewable energy exchange market that will facilitate and accelerate cross-border renewable trade.

... we will have to scale up our capacity by about 11 times in the next 20 years and for that to happen, we have to invest 150 billion dollars in infrastructure in the next 20 years

... we are looking at the South (region) for example to focus not just on the traditional oil and gas ... but also on renewables.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-23 09:32 | Report Abuse

@goody99, thanks for the info.

i think YTL is already aware about this, and YTL and YTLP will play important role to increase the renewable energy stake in the market.

Everything is ready, only lack of lands...

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-23 09:34 | Report Abuse

This RE policy, certainly will make the future brighter.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-23 09:51 | Report Abuse

万事俱备，只欠东风。
1. 新加坡目前需要更多的电，对于再生能源更是渴求。能提供多少，都杀。
2. 目前只有YTLP在新加坡有经营能源公司。
3. 目前YTLP已经出口着再生能源到新加坡，在TNB的合作之下。
4. 过去曾猜测，按照YTLP的风格，它是会自家生产再生能源的。看到YTL投标棕油公司的土地的时候，就证明了它的去向。
5. YTLP已经开始在Kulai建设太阳能发电厂。这说明了，太能能发电所需的技术以及配件来源，YTLP都具备了。
6. 目前所差的，只有土地一环。当然，再生能源出口的政策，会不会持续，确实是很大的未知数。

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-23 09:56 | Report Abuse

CIMB in its latest research update report on YTLPower reiterates Buy with tp of RM1.70.

It states minimal impact from TPC on PowerSeraya assuming 10% exposure to the wholesale market and 8%-16% reduction in USEP under TPC.

I think CIMB has over-stated the wholesale market exposure. WHile it says PowerSeraya contracts 80% of generation outputs to retails contracts and 20% contracted under vesting contracts and wholesale market exposure, it has assumed 50:50 split between vesting contract and wholesale market exposure, hence the 10% assumption. I understand the current vesting contract proportion is about 16%-17% of total generation, so the exposure to the wholesale market is likely to be in the region of just 3%-4% for the June 2023 quarter.

Assuming 4% exposure to wholesale market and 8% reduction in USEP as per EMA simulation, the likely impact to PowerSeraya for the June 2023 quarter will be:
3,300 GWh x 4% x S$300/MWh x 8% = S$3.2 million

Maintaining a gross margin of S$80/MWh, PowerSeraya would have made a gross margin of:
3,300 GWh x S$80/MWh = S$264 million for the June 2023 quarter

So the impact will be 3.2/264 = 1.2%

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-23 09:58 | Report Abuse

Kulai土地，664ha，至少可以生产500MW的太阳能电量。
莫实得种植在柔佛有（占7513公顷），不懂可以生产多少的太阳能电量呢？

以下是报纸新闻：
另外，马银行投行分析员说，莫实得种植持有的种植地，有1万7609公顷为永久地契，而大部份地皮位于柔佛（占7513公顷）以及吉打（占5560公顷），优越地点也适合用于发展房地产。
此外，当中的3万8640公顷或60%的土地为可持续棕油圆桌会议（RSPO）认证区域，因此是吸引种植公司竞标的原因。
https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/business/2023/06/19/574020

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 10:00 | Report Abuse

dragon328
Such small impact if exit will be more than cover by strengthen sgd keep hitting record RM 3.47, q to q strength by 5% now

Posted by goody99 > 2023-06-23 10:00 | Report Abuse

YTL Power looks to grow RE ambitions

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/20/ytl-power-looks-to-grow-re-ambitions

When I first read the news above 2 days ago, I was not sure if YTL group was serious about a bid. The Kulai land that they bought a few years ago was only 664 ha. Why would they be interested in 97,400 ha of land bank? Why they need so much land? Well, it makes sense to me now. The pie is THAT huge.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 10:03 | Report Abuse

From YTLP report, kulai 500 MW solar power is aim to power up 500 MW green Data center, a high value added to derive high profit margin from supplying power and water to capital intensive Green data center for long term income.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 10:10 | Report Abuse

YTLP is bid boustead plantation landbank will include large tract land in Sabah and Sarawak. If YTL turn it all to solar power farm, it could in line with Sarawak state gov intention to supply hydro power to Singapore via undersea cable. Both solar power and hydro power are green energy are great demand for Singapore to meet its zero carbon emission and avoid carbon tax

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/01/30/sarawak-set-to-export-hydropower-to-singapore

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-23 10:36 | Report Abuse

just my though, Is solar green as it is replacing the trees planted in the land from perspective of carbon footprint. Will other renewable energy coming in next 5-10 years that is cheaper than Solar. Any how ringgit is low, is good to invest in Malaysia cheaply with profit from abroad. Land = Solar, plantation, development, hedge against inflation. Buying the share for its management long term strategy.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 10:52 | Report Abuse

EU is banning CPO due deforestation, even forest tree is just replace with planted palm oil tree.

On contrary, EU give carbon credit if land is use for solar farm and your manufacture industry if use green energy can score high ESG and enjoy carbon tax credit when goods export to EU.

Globally, most countries, EU, China, US, all recognized solar power is best green energy and is demanding higher carbon tax to impose on goods without use green in manufacturing, storage battery power, Data center etc. Already first impact now is trend booming Green data center, Green EV charging station to power up EV

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 10:56 | Report Abuse

While hydrogen, solar, and wind energy are all renewable sources, they differ in their applications and potential for future growth. As an energy carrier, hydrogen has the advantage of being easily stored and transported, which is beneficial for large-scale industrial applications and long-distance energy transportation. Green hydrogen production also has the potential to use excess electricity generated by solar and wind power, making it a complementary technology for these renewable sources.

On the other hand, solar and wind energy are direct electricity producers and are more suitable for decentralized and residential applications. Solar energy is especially attractive for regions with abundant sunlight, while wind energy is better suited for areas with consistent wind patterns.

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-23 11:33 | Report Abuse

@dragon328,
What is this 3,300 GWh comes from ya?

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-23 11:51 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/672301

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-23 12:03 | Report Abuse

@super911, this 3,300 GWh is my estimated power generation for PowerSeraya in a quarter based on a total of 2,000MW of effective CCGT capacity and 75% dispatch factor:

2,000MW x 24h x 92 days x 75% = 3,312 GWh

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 12:23 | Report Abuse

The newer technology now is direct use solar-powered device that produces hydrogen fuel directly from moisture in the air. Solar generate power, and use these power electric to produce hydrogen from water or moisture in the air, so that power generate can directly store as hydrogen fuel in storage tank. These hydrogen fuel storage tank can use as generator electricity at night or when sunlight insufficient or use it as backup power to increase power at peak hour

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-23 12:24 | Report Abuse

Thanks @dragon328. Why do you take 75% as the gauge?

Posted by troy88 > 2023-06-23 12:32 | Report Abuse

Panic sellers who dumped the past week will be kicking their back sides

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-23 12:50 | Report Abuse

the panic sellers may have bought back at a low.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-23 14:22 | Report Abuse

@super911, the normal load dispatch factor for generating units in Singapore used to be 60% to 70% during normal supply-demand situation, but now due to tight supply, each generating unit especially the efficient CCGT needs to run at higher capacity during peak and non-peak hours and run with minimum maintenance downtime, hence a 75% dispatch load factor is more appropriate. They can run up to 80% to 85% max if necessary.

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-23 14:25 | Report Abuse

Thanks @dragon328, your info is indeed very useful. Have a great weekend ahead!

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-23 15:06 | Report Abuse

YTL seraya (2006MW ) + acquire Hyflux's Tuaspring power (396MW) for $ 270m, after get discount price 22%

Tuaspring's combined cycle power station complements the group's existing power generation assets in Singapore, creating significant synergies across our portfolio of utility businesses.

YTL acquire Tuaspring plant last year is one of the most technologically advanced assets on Singapore's power generation grid.

Following the purchase, YTL PowerSeraya now own 2402MW, is second largest power generation companies by registered capacity after Senoko Energy's 2807MW.

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-23 15:41 | Report Abuse

@hng33 YTL Seraya 1 quarter pretax profit can already cover the Tuaspring purchase. This currently is gold mine.. Later if increase renewable import from malaysia, can be largest power provider lols

Posted by Invest_888 > 2023-06-23 15:42 | Report Abuse

Buying YTLP is quite similar as buying Singapore stock in Sing dollar as its profit mainly coming from Singapore.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-23 16:01 | Report Abuse

YTL Power International

An overreaction to the TPC
■ Singapore’s Energy Market Authority (EMA) will implement a temporary price cap (TPC) to curb excessive volatility in wholesale electricity prices.

■ We expect this new price cap mechanism to have minimal impact on Power Seraya’s earnings, given the bulk of its volumes enjoy largely fixed margins.

■ Recent sell-off is an opportunity to accumulate, in our view. Maintain Add. EMA steps in to temper extreme price volatility

The EMA will implement a temporary price cap (TPC) to curb excessive volatility in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP). Effective 1 Jul 2023, prices will be capped at a
multiplier of 1.5-3x (depending on prevailing gas spreads) [Fig 1] to the long-run marginal cost (LRMC) of generation. Also, the EMA will be extending the vesting contracts for a further five years to 30 Jun 2028, following its expiry at the end of this month.

Sensitivity analysis suggests minimal impact

To demonstrate the potential impact on USEP from the imposition of TPC, EMA carried
out simulations assuming the TPC had been in place during two time periods:
1) Jan 2021-Sep 2022 – covering the market situation before and during the global energy crisis, and
2) Oct 2022-Apr 2023 – to capture the normalisation of gas prices in recent months. The
impact on average USEP prices during these periods worked out to be 8.1% and 3.2%,
respectively (Figs 2 & 3). Between FY20-22, Power Seraya sold about 80% of its electricity
sales volumes to the retail market (Fig 4). In general, these volumes are typically locked in via 6- to 24-month contracts at largely fixed prices and earn relatively fixed margins, as
we understand the company hedges its gas prices accordingly upon signing the contracts.

The balance 20% is sold under the vesting contract scheme and wholesale pool (no
disclosure on the split between the two). The former garners relatively fixed margins as the vesting price (sales price) is set by taking into consideration the LRMC with reasonable returns embedded for the generators. Assuming: 1) a 50:50 split for the balance volumes, and 2) a more aggressive 8-16% resultant impact on USEP prices, we estimate a potential earnings loss of S$24m-48m for Power Seraya upon implementation of the TPC (Fig 5).

That said, we have factored in a much larger normalisation in earnings in the coming
quarters on the back of our initial expectations of a notable pullback in margins. However, going by the current favourable volume mix, these appear to be holding up well.

Knee-jerk reaction offers good opportunity to accumulate

We view the recent 8% sell-off on YTLP shares following the TPC announcement as
overdone. We think valuations at 8.4x FY24F P/E (a 33% discount to its 10-year mean of
12.5x) and 0.6x P/BV do not fully capture the earnings prospects from Singapore’s
tightening electricity supply market amid recurring outages given the ageing power assets, as well as the potential upside from plans for cross boarder RE exports in the region over the medium term. Downside risks include capacity outages impacting volume sales and earnings drag from non-core operations. Rerating catalysts are better-than-expected quarterly earnings and higher dividend payouts.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-06-23 16:39 | Report Abuse

buy and hold to win big

Posted by Alex Chua > 2023-06-24 16:13 | Report Abuse

Maxis to provide TM with 4G network..Yes will be obsolete even TM make progress.

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-06-25 19:02 | Report Abuse

Thank you dragon326 and chessgame99 for your many valid & insightful comments and exchanges, and also to the handful of others who have meaningfully contributed to this forum, which I am now finally up-to-date with !

Given the looming favourable scenario so far painted for Seraya (and Tuaspring), I venture to further remind/highlight -
1) the continuing decline in the available supply cushion, leading up to 2026, placing more pressure on long-dated retail-price renewals
2) how the above point favours the genco(s) with rising mkt share in metered energy YET TO MATCH their respective mkt share in maximum gen capacity (refer to the latest NEMS MSCP Mkt Watch Reports)
3) the growing incidents of daily spectacularly spikes in 2023 (5 days short of six months, so far !) of maximum Energy Prices ranging between $500/MWh and $1000/MWh (36 days) and greater than $1000/Mwh (a staggering 41 days !)
4) in such a continually-tightening supply market, how the younger genco units will provide better and more fuel-efficient margins (Tuaspring comes to mind, having been commissioned in early 2016, while most of the units of the 3 big boys were commissioned over 2010 to 2013), and
5) having two separable plants (within the same group) offer some well-placed supply-optimisation and pricing dynamics...

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-26 08:56 | Report Abuse

@moncmondo87, as you highlighted, the conitinued supply tightness leading to 2H 2026 will put more pressure on retails contract renewal in coming months, consumers are spooked with the spiking wholesale prices pushing them towards more steadily-priced long term retails contracts.

PowerSeraya does have spare capacity of some 1,000MW (registered capacity of c.3,500MW vs efficient capacity of 2,000MW) which are of lower efficiency types. These open-fired gas turbines and oil-fired turbines may serve as peaking plants to feed into the spiking wholesale prices during peak hours but may not generate a high % of generation output in terms of volume-weighted average.

With TPC to be in place from 2H 2023, we may expect similar number of occurrences of wholesale price spikes but each time the spike is capped at a price cap which is equivalent to 1.5x to 3x LRMC, estimated at about S$700-800/MWh max. This price cap is high enough to provide good margins to peaking plants.

Tuas' plants are not much newer than Senoko's and PowerSeraya's and they are of the same F-type CCGT (similar efficiency range), so Tuas does not stand much advantage in bidding into the pool. Again, the main battle ground is in the retails market (which Seraya has hedged over 80% of generation output against) and the current tight supply situation will continue to ensure each Genco to enjoy healthy margin in the next 3 years in the retails market.

Having 2 separate sites in Jurong Island (where original PowerSeraya plants are located) and in Hyflux does not offer much competitive advantage to PowerSeraya but the large scale does give substantial savings in terms of corporate overhead and operational staffs. For instance, the same preventive maintenance team can cover both sites and a slightly enlarged market operation team can cover all generating units in both sites, so the group shall enjoy lower overhead cost per MWh of generation.

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-06-26 10:28 | Report Abuse

Again, thanks for your insights, dragon 328 (corrected, this time 😁)...

Posted by chessgame99 > 2023-06-26 13:39 | Report Abuse

We are likely to see good results in Aug. But must wait patiently. This is why investing is not thr same as trading. Those who are trading tends to do quick adjustment to trade whenever news are positive or negative. if they can get 5% gain in a position , they may take profit immediately.

Dragon strategy and mine seem to more fundamental analysis. So we tend to hold long term. most of positions are at least 1 year. i seldom change them unless i see a more attractive value buy.

And YTLP is looking very attractive !

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-26 14:17 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, have you done any estimation pnL calculation for wessex water due the revised rate up 9% start from 1/4/2023

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-26 15:43 | Report Abuse

@shpok4574, Wessex Waters recorded a pretax loss of RM47m in Q3FY2023, but there was a non-cash provision of RM75m related to interests on index-linked bonds. Stripping out the non-cash provision, Wessex should have registered a PBT of RM28m in Q3FY2023.

Its revenue for Q3FY2023 was RM987m so a c.9% rise in average water tariffs will increase revenue by RM89 million. Assuming no other non-cash provision and similar cost structure as in Q3, Wessex should register a pretax profit of about RM117 million.

However, as its Regulated Asset Base (RAB) has increased to a larger base as of April 2023, so theoretically the regulated revenue should be higher. And I am hoping for Wessex to be able to control costs to a lower level, and to achieve higher unregulated revenue through new projects. All in, I expect Wessex to register PBT of RM130-170m a quarter, if not in this June then in following quarters.

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-26 16:11 | Report Abuse

@dragon328,
Do you mind to share why YTLPower profit dropped so much since 2017? YTLP had been earning RM1B yearly before 2017 but dropped almost 40-50% ever since. I am not very familiar with its history.