Posted by Ravi1969 > 2024-01-30 18:29 | Report Abuse

rr88 has shown us time and again in i3 that he is a bankrupt and liar

Posted by KLV868 > 2024-01-30 18:30 | Report Abuse

I continue to cling to the ambitious dream of visiting Japan's YTL Resort!

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2024-01-30 19:07 | Report Abuse

If someone has the Kenanga target price update, would appreciate if can share via the messenger chat ? Thanks

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-30 19:11 | Report Abuse

why kenanga? why not \Mr.Fox revised TP = 5.50!!!!???
you dun believe words of wisdom??!
haha

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2024-01-30 19:23 | Report Abuse

I don't know Mr Fox 😁

Posted by kytan > 2024-01-30 20:43 | Report Abuse

@ Dragon328
Thanks for your latest analysis.
I buy YTLPOWER because reading your analysis, just before dividend payout.
Today i already 100% gain on mother share and 220% gain on warrant.
Overall i have 62% return (paper gain) for this year.

I will continue hold mother share. Only will let go call warrant 2 weeks before expired date.
Your reseach is much more better compare to investment bank.

Thanks

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 21:16 | Report Abuse

@kytan, good for you winning on two fronts!!

I also adopt similar strategy as yours, bought some call warrants and will progressively sell off the call warrants towards the expiry date and hold onto mother shares for dividends and long term capital appreciation

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 21:46 | Report Abuse

@Raymond Tiruchelvam, that is just a ballpark valuation using 10x PER.

It is very subjective as to how much PER to use for a certain stock. Generally investors give high PER to stocks with defensive earnings and steady dividends but little growth, such as Nestle and Dutch Lady with PER of over 30x and dividend yield around 3%.

Investors also give high PER to high growth stocks like tech stocks, some of which enjoy PER of 25x to 30x, as they think a 20% growth in earnings p.a. will lower the PER to 20x then 16x in 2 years.

Long term PE ratio band for S&P500 stocks in the US is around 15x.

If YTLP last quarterly earnings can sustain for the next 3 quarters, full year EPS will be 41.88 sen as per your calculation above. To give a 10x PER to YTLP is on the conservative side, as its earnings have grown by triple digit and are set to grow by double digits in next few years. It should enjoy a PER of 15x or more. Its peers Tenaga is trading at 17x to 18x PER, Malakoff is loss making in past 1-2 years.

The issue is that most local analysts have missed out on this stock last year and hence are catching up with upgrades, but most think that YTLP earnings have peaked, as can be seen in their earnings projections dropping from RM2.8b in FY2024 to RM2.5-2.6b in FY2025 then to RM2.3-2.5b in FY2026 then worse to RM2.1-2.2b in FY2027. When investors see the reducing earnings projection, they may not want to give a high PER to YTLP. That's the trick used by analysts to lower a target price for a stock, another trick is to use sum-of-parts valuation rather than PER. For example, Maybank still has a target price of RM2.70 for YTL Power even though it forecast EPS of 38 sen for FY2024, effectively giving a PER of just 7.1x. How would you justify that?

But I think once PowerSeraya beats their earnings estimate every quarter by quarter, eventually these local analysts will get convinced that the earnings will sustain well into 2026 and YTL Power overall profits will grow from FY2024 to FY2026 instead of reducing, then investors will be willing to give a higher PER of 12x to 15x.

Another factor is market sentiment. If foreign funds continue pouring in on political stability, and especially if YTL and YTL Power both are included in MSCI on 13 Feb, then we can see more foreign funds buying in and these funds have their own research team or rely more on foreign research house reports like from CLSA or Macquarie, rather than looking at any of these local analysts' report, then the market will give a higher PER of 12.5x to YTLP.

And foreign funds are quick in response to any news development, as can be seen today price actions where over 50 million shares were traded and stock price closed high, indicating foreign funds buying. This was good response to the news of PowerSeraya clinching a new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT project. You see none of the local analysts commented on this news, as they are either not able to make any sensible earnings projection for the new unit or have other agenda.

So far, only Hong Leong's Daniel Wong and RHB Sean Lim have given non-biased reports on YTL Power, who gave reasonable assumptions to justify their valuation method. The rest are mostly conflicted, I feel.

If such sentiment persists, even thought YTLP continues to grow profits year in year out to 58 sen or 75 sen per share, I am afraid the market and these local analysts will be willing to give a 10x PER only. If we are lucky, we may see it trading up to 12.5x PER. Anything above is jackpot to me.

Posted by Happy33 > 2024-01-30 22:05 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, thank you for sharing your kind & honest thoughts.

Posted by michaelwong > 2024-01-30 22:54 | Report Abuse

dragon328, your impressive sharing and thoughts for YTLP overall businesses activities and its future run up is commendable .TQ !

Posted by JaniceLPH > 2024-01-30 23:26 | Report Abuse

Abang Jo: Singapore to channel data centre investments into Sarawak in exchange for energy
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699156

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2024-01-31 03:19 | Report Abuse

@dragon328...... truly appreciate your valuable feedback and solid reasonings. I have to fully agree with you on the viewpoint expressed, analysts are not giving a fair assessment of ytlp.... partly due to the less understanding of the revenue structure - other than the saraya and wessex straight forward numbers..... other factors needs deep understanding ie, data centre and incremental power sales, as well as the jordan power plant. Also sum of parts valuation is not fair for ytlp... that is more relevant for property companies like uems..... where their huge landbank does not even begin to justify the current share price. That being said ACE has slowly been gobbling up land in johor mainly from uems (using their wholly owned paragon co) for the FTZ deal which is now a sure thing, perhaps you can help analyse ACE for me and us all..... worth a look. Conservatively, current ytlp stands at about 10x PER and as you said i will b ehappy if this can be raised to at least 15x and using forward earnings..... lets hope for the best buddy.... cheers and i own u beers..... will sell my heim shares for that :-)

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-31 05:36 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699091

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 30): Shares of YTL Power International Bhd climbed to a fresh high of RM4.22 on Tuesday morning as analysts are upbeat on robust earnings from its Singapore business PowerSeraya and gradual improvements from its UK division, Wessex Water.

YTL Power, which was among the top 10 gainers and most active stocks at the time of writing, pared its gains at RM4.08 — 13 sen or 3.29% higher than the previous day’s close of RM3.95 — giving it a market capitalisation of RM33.29 billion.

Trading volume rose 12.95% to 32.67 million compared to Monday’s trading volume and was 41.49% higher than the 200-day average volume of 23.09 million.

The counter has risen over 58% year-to-date and 458% in the past year.

The rally in YTL Power is also boosting the share price of its parent company YTL Corp Bhd, the 14th active stock on the local bourse.

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by paperplane > 2024-01-31 06:49 | Report Abuse

Too fast, too furious

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-31 08:40 | Report Abuse

YTLPOWR Powering Up Singapore

YTL Power International’s (YTLPOWR) subsidiary, YTL PowerSeraya, secured the initial request for proposal (RFP) under Singapore's new Centralised Process framework by the Energy Market Authority.

YTL PowerSeraya will construct a hydrogen-ready CCGT (combined-cycle gas turbine) at its Pulau Seraya Power Station, costing an estimated SGD 800 million, with completion targeted by 31 Dec’27.

The project aligns with Singapore's Green Plan, contributing to the nation's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Shares of YTLPOWR have risen nearly 468% YoY and 64% YTD. YTLPOWR closed 6.33% higher yesterday at MYR 4.20 — giving it a market capitalisation of MYR 34.26 billion.

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by KingKKK > 2024-01-31 08:43 | Report Abuse

How is YTLPOWR performance in January against other top performers?
Read it here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/bestStocks/2024-01-30-story-h-189435630-Bursa_MAGNIFICENT_7_Winner_in_January_2024_Discussion_about_PBA_YTL_YTL

Posted by Plantermen > 2024-01-31 08:51 | Report Abuse

Yes. dragon 328 agreed 100% with you on YTLP business analytical segment report. Growth potential and income plus a dividend payout will ensure YTLP /YTL group in the investment fraternity radar.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-31 09:09 | Report Abuse

To recognise TENAGA as one of the magnificent 7 in BURSA is actually ridiculous because there are a few far better out-performers for sure and are in my stock portfolio, fortunately.

Posted by Ytl2023 > 2024-01-31 09:59 | Report Abuse

Looks like 4.30 can achieve today

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-31 10:02 | Report Abuse

hope u r a good fortune teller!!!
haha

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-31 10:08 | Report Abuse

Now, YTLP P/E is 12.53 and YTL P/E is 17.04. Due to lower P/E, foreign buyers still choose YTLP. Next financial quarterly report will be out soon, with significant better result in comparison one year ago, the P/E of YTLP will be lower. More upside for the YTLP share price.

Posted by paperplane > 2024-01-31 10:17 | Report Abuse

Results not there, but price already there. Msia investors too smart

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-31 10:18 | Report Abuse

price movement like y'day?! from reddish to greenish!!??

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-01-31 10:20 | Report Abuse

Stock goes 6-9 months ahead of economy
will buy on news and sell on facts happen?
time will tell

Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-01-31 10:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/01/1007795/sarawak-state-sell-excess-green-energy-singapore-return-data

Bad news for YTL POWER

Now it will face more competition

Hyflux failed when it went into Power generation due to fierce competition

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-31 10:48 | Report Abuse

@calvintaneng
Shame on you! you should promote your counter at the respective counter forum. If you do it 1 time, people forgive you, if you do it 2 times, people are not happy with you. when you do it 3 times, people feel very bad about you. Now you do it for your advantages, shame on you. We have very good master here, dragon328. No place for you here.

Posted by Goldberg > 2024-01-31 11:07 | Report Abuse

Posted by dragon328 > 15 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Hyflux failed due to its inexperience in power generation as it branched out from its water treatment business. Its power plant in Singapore has since been bought over by PowerSeraya at a cost lower than the original building costs of Hyflux. That shows the brilliance of YTL Power management in scooping up quality assets at a bargain price.

This new CCGT plant of Hyflux has been contributing good profits to PowerSeraya since the completion of acquisition last year, and PowerSeraya is on track to recoup the investment cost in Hyflux asset within 3 years.

Thank you Calvin for highlighting this timely acquisition by YTL group.

Posted by Goldberg > 2024-01-31 11:09 | Report Abuse

Our sifu dragon is such a knowledgeable person and also a gentleman.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-31 11:17 | Report Abuse

Calvin, you are wrong on this. This is potentially good news to YTL Power on two fronts:

1) Firstly, Sarawak will be one of the places for the cheapest production of green hydrogen. As the state ramps up investments in green hydrogen production, it may be just in time for PowerSeraya's new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT to use such low-cost green hydrogen by from 2030. As explained, when crude oil and LNG prices are high, PowerSeraya will have a choice to co-mingle higher portion of green hydrogen with LNG to generate electricity at lower costs and enjoy higher gross margin.

2) The news says Singapore would fund the undersea power cable from Sarawak to Singapore for RE export from 2032. This development may be faster than for Tenaga to build a new 1,000MW inter-connection with Singapore from Johor, as Tenaga is cash tight. So this will promote faster RE export from Sarawak to Singapore than from Peninsular to Singapore (which Tenaga is trying to play it to its advantage), and there is less politics involved in such a deal, more based on merits so YTLP would stand a bigger chance to secure part of such RE export from Sarawak.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-31 11:24 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 can you explain more on the cost structure of Green Hydrogen ready CCGT with 30% Hydrogen usage compare to non-hydrogen CCGT? how will green hydrogen give higher margin?

Posted by 2721 > 2024-01-31 11:33 | Report Abuse

Continue uptend...gogogo

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-31 11:35 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, it is best explained using an example.

Say at current market prices of LNG and Singapore electricity prices of SGD 200/MWh, the fuel cost portion is about SGD140/MWh and hence the non-fuel margin is SGD60/MWh. This non-fuel margin is the gross profit margin of PowerSeraya for power generation after deducting the fuel costs.

Say at current liquid hydrogen prices, the fuel cost of CCGT generation is SGD180/MWh, so at electricity price of SGD200/MWh, the non-fuel margin for a CCGT using 100% hydrogen will be just SGD20/MWh.

However, the situation will change when crude oil and LNG prices shoot up. Let say LNG prices shoot up by 20%, so fuel cost for a CCGT burning 100% LNG will increase to SGD140/MWh x 1.20 = SGD168/MWh, so typically gencos will increase electricity selling price by the same amount to SGD228/MWh in order to preserve a gross margin of SGD60/MWh.

Now if a CCGT switches to 100% hydrogen burning, its fuel cost remains at SGD180/MWh, but the gross margin will double up to SGD48/MWh at the new electricity selling price of SGD228/MWh.

What if the hydrogen price gets cheaper with the bigger production from Sarawak? Let say if hydrogen price gets 10% cheaper, then the fuel cost for CCGT buring 100% hydrogen will reduce to SGD162/MWh, then its gross margin will get a lift of SGD18/MWh to SGD66/MWh or tripling up from the original SGD20/MWh.

Hope this explains.

Posted by rr88 > 2024-01-31 11:41 | Report Abuse

Normal lar. It happens again n again.
First foreigners came in n bought fr locals at 3.50 fr 2.80. Locals happy2 sold to foreigners for 0.70 gain.

Then foreigners push to 4.20 n selling back to locals for 0.70 gain. Locals now are over their head buying back fr foreigners dreaming to make another 0.70 to 4.90/5.00.

Analysts then start to shift their goal posts higher to 4.80 from 3.00.

Then foreigners quietly leave in the middle of the night with their 0.70 gain. Price then falls back to 2.80. Locals lose 1.40. After deducting earlier gain of 0.70, locals are still nett loser of 0.70.

THIS IS THE GAME OF FOREIGN FUNDS.

Posted by dmyap327 > 2024-01-31 11:55 | Report Abuse

turn green soon

Posted by OTB > 2024-01-31 12:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-31 12:05 | Report Abuse

My honest prediction is the “Foreign funds” and market makers will boost its stock price to above rm6.00 when YTLp becomes Coreweave (an elite AI DC infrastructure in USA) of the far east.

Posted by chon99 > 2024-01-31 12:06 | Report Abuse

Fast and furious !
Yes, fast drop and fast rebound . That's the characteristic power of a rock solid and dynamic counter : YTL POWER !!!

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-31 12:12 | Report Abuse

I was bashed up in UTDPLT thread when I’ve described YTLp as a “rock solid” investment. Sad, I was indeed.

Posted by Ytl2023 > 2024-01-31 12:12 | Report Abuse

Now on course for all time high

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-31 12:13 | Report Abuse

now green/green! what a feeling!!!!!!!!!!!!!
haha

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-31 12:33 | Report Abuse

Haha RM 4.22...

So nice and lovely

YTLPOWER got Power..

Thanks God we have dragon 328...

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-31 12:35 | Report Abuse

So nice.. MrFox Target Price achieved with Flying Colours..

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by messisanta > 2024-01-31 12:35 | Report Abuse

Good job Ytlp. And pls bring Ytl tutn green as well....

Posted by Bullstocks888 > 2024-01-31 12:36 | Report Abuse

Hold on tightly to YTL Power and PBA!

Both are HODL stocks!

Posted by ltlim74 > 2024-01-31 13:32 | Report Abuse

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singtel-partners-nvidia-under-new-direction-build-new-green-ai-ready-data-centres

Posted by ltlim74 > 2024-01-31 13:33 | Report Abuse

Dragon328, what's your take on this latest development.

Posted by ltlim74 > 2024-01-31 13:36 | Report Abuse

The subsea cable from Sarawak to SG announced recently probably is a tie-up with SingTel

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-31 14:33 | Report Abuse

another hammer?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LzGzTCpj/

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-31 14:58 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 thank you!!! if 100% Hydrogen, you can sell it as Green/ECO energy to get better price.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-31 15:01 | Report Abuse

@ltlim74, this new development does not have impact on YTL Power. It only shows that AI data centre is the way forward, even Singtel is upgrading its old data centres to AI enabled data centre. Nvidia is so big that it won't put all eggs with YTL Power only in its data centre business in Asia, remember Nvidia boss Jensen Huang also visited Singapore last month before he met up with YTLP MD in KL.

The subsea cable is different thing, this is more of a fibre cable for internet connectivity. The subsea cable I mentioned above was for power transmission from Sarawak to Singapore.