Posted by Sypher > 2024-01-30 11:16 | Report Abuse

Just my style, but I've taken profit at 4.12. As new agong is coming in, and US is going for their FOMC discussion tomorrow. Will be back in soon, as I expect the QR at the end of Feb to be great. Good luck holders. :))) Will rejoin you soon.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 11:20 | Report Abuse

Some comments on the latest Ambank upgrade report:

1) A lot of focus is put on YTLP's data centre business, notably a very good valuation of RM8.2b to RM10.6b for 35MW of AI data centre. Huey Ling justified the valuation by referring to the current valuation of an equivalent 70MW data centre of CoreWeave in the US (and attaching a 50% discount) and the market value of the number of Nvidia H100 GPUs required for a 35MW AI data centre. I am not expert on this but I did check online last month that a Nvidia GPU could cost RM200k a piece, and Huey Ling did assume about the same cost. The good thing is that this is the valuation for just 35MW of AI data centre, as YTLP secures more data centre jobs to fill up its 500MW data centre park in Kulai, the total valuation for YTLP data centre business may triple or quadrable.

2) PowerSeraya is valued at just SGD5.5 billion, on the low side to me. I see that her earnings projection for YTLP also comes down in FY2025 and FY2026, indicating that she was still looking at some sort of "normalisation" in PowerSeraya earnings after FY2024. This is okay to me, and it leaves room for further upgrade when PowerSeraya handsomely beats the forecast next year.

3) Wessex is valued at 1.23x RCV, better than that from RHB (1.03x RCV) but lower than Hong Leong's 1.4x RCV. She was on the conservative side as Wessex earnings have not picked up yet. It may take some time probably another month or 2 when Wessex announces the next round of water tariff hike for the year starting 1st April 2024, then I think the market will give higher value to Wessex when they see the earnings rebound

4) Jordan Attarat Power is valued at just USD283 million, way lower than others' estimates. This is even lower than a typical valuation even assuming half the PPA payments. This looks like more of the cost of investment, a little too conservative.

5) Jawa Power, Yes, Ranhill stakes are valued at net asset value, and are relatively smaller so no comment here

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-30 11:39 | Report Abuse

AI DC, SG new PP with Hydrogen, WTE projects etcs, with all the capital intensive project running very soon, look like there will be another "Bonds With Warrants · Proposed Offer For Sale" very soon. Hope it will be announced very soon. Last 2 round was in 20-Feb-2000 and 16-Nov-2007.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2024-01-30 12:09 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 TMB is also on the lookout to venture into data centre business as well. Will this affect YTLP in any way?

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 12:17 | Report Abuse

@jeffchan1901, many parties are looking to venture into data centre business as this is the growth sector to get into in next few years. I think the demand for new data centres in the region over next few years is big enough to accommodate new players like TM. Don't forget some players will get out when the asset matures, just like TimeDotCom sold off its stakes in a data centre company last year.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 12:19 | Report Abuse

The advantage that YTL Power has over other data centre players is that it has tied up with Nvidia and has access to its H100 GPUs which are in high demand in the market. Not all data centre players can get big amount of GPU chips to power their data centre.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 12:20 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, I think a private placement with free warrants or just issuance of free warrants to YTLP holders is likely. It will be an easy avenue to raise cash to fund the company capex over next 5 years as more warrant holders convert into mother shares.

Posted by izoklse > 2024-01-30 12:24 | Report Abuse

possible this week last push maybe before unloading start for Chinese New Year. But maybe wont go down so much.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-30 12:25 | Report Abuse

@jeffchan1901 TM DC is not AI DC but hyperscale data centre, HDC. A lot of companies is investing heavily in this DC now. @dragon328 the NVDA's CEO will make sure priorities shipment is given to his pet project in Johor. 😁😁😁

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-30 13:57 | Report Abuse

In a note on Tuesday, Kenanga Research said it was positive on the latest development of the power plant, saying it will boost PowerSeraya’s earnings and improve its environmental, social and governance (ESG) score.

“Assuming S$800 million capex with 80:20 debt-to-equity ratio, 21-year concession period and IRR [internal rate of return] of 10%, it would add 13 sen to YTL Power’s SOP [sum-of-parts] valuation”.

“Separately, we revisit our valuation for YTL Power’s data centre investment, benchmarking it against SGX-listed Keppel DC REIT. At present, the market values Keppel DC REIT with a capacity of 300MW in its entirety at an enterprise value of S$4.27 billion or RM14.9 billion, translating to RM49.7 million/MW.

“Based on RM49.7 million/MW, YTL Power’s entire 500MW data centre carries a gross value of RM24.91 billion. Having deducted the development cost of RM15.0 billion and discounted to net present value, we arrive at a valuation of RM7.02 billion (versus our previous DCF [discounted cash flow] valuation of RM2.65 billion based on 150MW capacity at a discount factor of 7.8%),” said Kenanga.

Kenanga, which maintained its ‘outperform’ rating on YTL Power, upgraded its SOP-derived target price (TP) by 34% to RM4.10 from RM3.06 as the research house upgraded its data centre valuation to 86 sen a share from 33 sen a share.

“[We also] added 13 sen/DCF share for the new CCGT plant, and imputed a new YES valuation of 24 sen based on actual book value of RM1.95 billion as per FY2023,” it added.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-30 14:01 | Report Abuse

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest Old TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga Old TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒
MrFox TP > 4.00 ⚒
Kenanga New TP 4.10 ⚒
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
CLSA TP RM 4.40 😁
RHB New TP RM4.69😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
AmInvest New TP 5.10 😁
HLIB New TP RM 5.15 😁

Updated TPs

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2024-01-30 14:02 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699091

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 14:51 | Report Abuse

Nobody selling. Everybody buying.

Posted by messisanta > 2024-01-30 15:09 | Report Abuse

Rose to 4.22 and now drop back to 4.06. Hopefully today can close above 4.10

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2024-01-30 15:21 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 @cgtan2020 Thanks guys for sharing your thoughts. good to know.

Posted by 2721 > 2024-01-30 15:24 | Report Abuse

China and HK index affect KLCI?? All red red..

Posted by AlTugauw > 2024-01-30 15:31 | Report Abuse

YTL's connection to NVIDIA is highly probably a security risk to Malaysiaa and its genuinely pro Palestine stance. We look like fools when we say we want to save Palestinian and then invite the Company Nvidia with the AI Supercomputer designed by Nvidia aimed at the drones and missles killing the thousands of innocent Palestinians children on genocide scale until even the ICJ says so. Makes our PM seen as a hypocritical politician saying one thing and taking photo ops with Nvidia and YTL.

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 15:34 | Report Abuse

Releks

Posted by Permutation > 2024-01-30 15:49 | Report Abuse

@Dragon328, with all the new projects in the pipeline what is your 12 months TP for YTLpower? tq

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2024-01-30 15:52 | Report Abuse

please do not go too high.... as i want to accumulate more and funds not here yet :-) .... slow and steady rise is always good.... keeps contra players off and we get a smooth journey forward..... patience is key

Posted by BudiLee > 2024-01-30 16:00 | Report Abuse

I will sleep peacefully tonight 😂 , tomorrow and the day after, another good days for all of YTLP investors

Posted by Ytl2023 > 2024-01-30 16:01 | Report Abuse

Am still holding

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-30 16:03 | Report Abuse

will be > 4.10 at close!!!?????

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-30 16:04 | Report Abuse

you dun believe words of wisdom??!1
haha

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-30 16:05 | Report Abuse

Notice that quality investors are prefer to buy more tickets after 4 pm.

Posted by Ytl2023 > 2024-01-30 16:06 | Report Abuse

Try go pass 4.22

Posted by probability > 2024-01-30 16:07 | Report Abuse

by 2027, SGD to MYR will be more than 4.0...

Malaysian currency has no hope (there is rumour Najib may have pengampunan)

investing in YTLP (with the bulk of revenue from powerseraya) is like investing in SG

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=SGD&To=MYR

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2024-01-30 16:13 | Report Abuse

@probability .... you are right, with regards to the increased profits and revenue coming from strengthening of S$. Other than this there is no real increased revenue in real terms...... as power consumption is pretty flat (maybe 1-2% monthly) and wessez water still showing losses..... many projects in pipeline, but almost all only to show some results in 2026/7.... not sure about the data centre tho??

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 16:15 | Report Abuse

Najib pardoned. Patutlah market crash

Posted by probability > 2024-01-30 16:17 | Report Abuse

tomorrow onwards real show will begin with the CW expired....

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-30 16:23 | Report Abuse

Malaysia need a visionary PM and must kill the corruption and attract foreign direct investment esp from developed countries with advance technology. Only then Malaysia Ringgit will be strong, can fight against inflation and increase people annual income to developed country standard. ONLY then Malaysia get the respect from other developed countries. It is so called power of a country. Otherwise, continue corrupted, no reform, after 20 years, 1 sgd =RM20 is possible.

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 16:30 | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/01/1007675/breaking-najib-pardoned%C2%A0

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-30 16:31 | Report Abuse

PMX plan is Najib go out Kajang, Tun M sons & Daim go in Kajang

Posted by sasword > 2024-01-30 16:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 2721 > 2024-01-30 16:43 | Report Abuse

Wow..seems like close rm4.2

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-30 16:44 | Report Abuse

MrFox

will be > 4.10 at close!!!?????

40 minutes ago

cun cun!!
haha

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-30 16:52 | Report Abuse

Wow closed at RM4.20.
Uniholder target price should be adjusted up soon.

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-01-30 16:57 | Report Abuse

@Permutation, it is difficult to pitch a target price for the next 12 months as things are happening fast on the ground. I will just try to forecast how YTLP earnings may look like in next 12-36 months when most of the new projects will have started operational.

PowerSeraya earnings should continue to be strong till 2026 at least with net profit in the range of SGD700 - 900 million a year or RM2.5b - RM3.1b.

Wessex shall turn around from FY2025 onwards with expected earnings of 4.5b x 3% = 135 million pounds minus some 35m pounds as provision for index linked bonds, hence net profit may come to around 100 million pounds or RM600 million. For FY2026, net profit will get a bigger jump as Wessex will enter the next 5-year regulatory period with a bigger capex plan and hopefully higher WACC to reflect the higher interest rate environment, hence I made a rough forecast as 5.0b x 3.3% = 165m - 35m (for ILBs) = 130 million pounds or RM780 million. Then every year thereafter, net profit will get bigger by RM100 million to reflect the bigger RCV each year. So it may well make a net profit of RM1.0 billion by FY2028.

Jordan power once its arbitration case is settled will contribute net profit of RM500-600 million a year for the next 30 + 10 years, increasing over time as project loan gets gradually pared down and interest expenses come down to zero in 12-15 years.

Yes 5G should break even in FY2024 and contribute some earnings, earlier estimated to be RM100-200 million a year on conservative subscribers projection.

Digital bank will start in 2H 2024 and hopefully break even in 3 years.

Data centre earnings contribution is rather hard to predict as not much info is available. I will just rely on RHB analyst's projection but tag a higher IRR of 15%, so forecast a net profit of USD150-180 million a year once the full 100MW AI data centre is fully developed. That will be RM700 - 850 million of net profit contribution a year.

WTE project may contribute profits of RM300-400 million a year for a capex of RM4.5 billion at IRR of mid teens.

This new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT at PowerSeraya will contribute gross margin of at least SGD200 million a year from 2028.

We can expect YTLPower net profit to range from RM4.7 billion to RM6.1 billion a year once all these projects start operational in next 3 years and will jump by another SGD200m or RM700m once PowerSeraya's new 600MW hydrogen-ready CCGT kicks in from 2028.

That is EPS of 58 sen to 75 sen jumping to 83 sen from 2028.

Applying a PER of 10x to the lowest earnings projection, I get a fair value of RM5.80.

Applying the past-years average PER of 12.5x, I get a top range of 12.5x RM0.75 = RM9.30.

As each project is commissioned and new earnings stream kicks in, YTLP will get re-rated gradually to RM5.80 - RM9.30 over next 12-36 months, I hope.

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-30 17:01 | Report Abuse

…still no head and shoulder pattern in the stock price chart yet so, there is no danger in sight for now.

Posted by icecool > 2024-01-30 17:06 | Report Abuse

wah afternoon powerful

Posted by MrFox > 2024-01-30 17:07 | Report Abuse

dragon328@@
tks for the insightful info

Posted by Ran271221 > 2024-01-30 17:11 | Report Abuse

Terima kasih maklumat drpd Dragon328.

Posted by Permutation > 2024-01-30 17:22 | Report Abuse

@Dragon328, Thank you so much for your analysis. As always ,appreciated.

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-01-30 17:30 | Report Abuse

@Dragon328, appreciated your analysis..

Posted by beinvested > 2024-01-30 17:36 | Report Abuse

Like a gem. Everyone wish have a piece of it. many smiling faces. Generous customers walking around the town. Lifted up those who are bound down. The LORD sets "prisoners" free.

He sets some prisoners free/those captured with paper losses to switch to this counter and being redeemed and gained profits by His kindness.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2024-01-30 17:50 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 .... thank you for the wonderful financial insight.... done like a pro, u accountant ah? so the fair value of RM5.80 is based on forward EPS of 58c (at 10x) so basically if market prices shares after financial performance this will be the price at end of 2025? Last Qtr EPS is 10.47 and assuming can be repeated next 3 qtrs then will be 41.88 and at 10x PE... fair value is RM4.18 ??

Posted by OnTime > 2024-01-30 17:50 | Report Abuse

ytlp is a beauty!

Posted by David Gunter > 2024-01-30 17:54 | Report Abuse

One clown was shouting 1.6 since last 8 months now at 4.20 where is he? Must be sour grapes LoL

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-30 18:14 | Report Abuse

…had to copy & paste rr88’s words of sampah.
Posted by rr88 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

After 31 years in the market, I KNOW A MARKET TOP WHEN I SEE ONE.

Today is THE VERY TOP at 4.03.
You WONT SEE THAT AGAIN IN YOUR LIFETIME.

If you hold on to it, ULTIMATELY YOU WILL BE STUCK WITH IT WITH MORE THAN 1.00 PAPER LOSS.

That said, IT HAS BEEN AN IMRESSIVE RUN FROM 0.66 to 4.03 of MORE THAN 550% GAIN IN 14 MONTHS.

As in any impressive run, SOME PEOPLE WILL GET STUCK AT THE VERY TOP.

Posted by KLV868 > 2024-01-30 18:28 | Report Abuse

I appreciate Dragon328's fact presentation style, as it focuses on narrative with facts rather than relying solely on chart reading to identify trends based on past data. Thanks again.