Posted by kmwong8711 > 2020-05-02 19:13 | Report Abuse

Good news for Jaks

Posted by kmwong8711 > 2020-05-02 19:14 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/05/02/vietnam-clear-of-covid-19-cases-for-seven-straight-days-schools-reopen-on-may-4

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 19:16 | Report Abuse

Firehawk, try changing some of your wordings.
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firehawk DK66, strangely, i can't post under yr article
02/05/2020 7:08 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 19:19 | Report Abuse

I wish I m able to do that so that I can prevent people from making nasty remarks in my thread
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firehawk you ban me? :D
02/05/2020 7:11 PM

Posted by firehawk > 2020-05-02 19:20 | Report Abuse

@DK66, i post 3x, not success ... don't know what wordings i should change, lazy to type again ... no big deal :D

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 19:21 | Report Abuse

Page not found ??
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kmwong8711 https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/05/02/vietnam-clear-of-c...-4
02/05/2020 7:14 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 19:27 | Report Abuse

kmwong8711, is this you were trying to post ?

HANOI: Vietnam reported no new Covid-19 (coronavirus) cases on Saturday morning (May 2), the seventh day in a row, with its total confirmed cases remaining at 270, according to its Ministry of Health.

A total of 219 Covid-19 patients have recovered in the country, with no deaths reported, while there are 443 suspected cases and nearly 35,000 people being monitored and quarantined as of Friday evening, according to the ministry.

Students in Vietnamese capital city of Hanoi will return to school from May after an over three-month break due to the Covid-19 epidemic, vietnam News Agency reported.

The decision was made by Chairman of Hanoi's People Committee Nguyen Duc Chung on Friday.

Specifically, secondary school and high school classes will welcome students back from May 4 while those of kindergarten and elementary schools will return on May 11.

Earlier, Ho Chi Minh City announced that its ninth and 12th graders will return to school on May 4 to finish their second semester before the high school entrance and high school graduation exams respectively in late July and early August, daily newspaper vietnam News reported.

Students in other grades between four and 11 in Ho Chi Minh City will start on May 8, those in grades one to three on May 11, and those in kindergartens and nurseries on May 18 at the latest, according to the Vietnam News Agency. - Xinhua/Asian News Network

Posted by kmwong8711 > 2020-05-02 19:38 | Report Abuse

DK66
Yes sir

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-02 19:39 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the information

Posted by mf > 2020-05-03 04:14 | Report Abuse

Dow drops more than 600 points to start the new month, Amazon falls 7%

Posted by Talib > 2020-05-03 11:19 | Report Abuse

Mf power station has nothing to do with down Jones. Jaks will challenge 1.1 tomorrow

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-05-03 11:21 | Report Abuse

Charge wat? Car batery ka

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 11:22 | Report Abuse

Good morning my good friend

Don't worry about the djia
It is fair to say jaks has a super strong support around RM1. 00
It is not easy to get it below RM1. 00 unless you are very lucky. Market won't wait for you. Hng33 lagi tak wait for you, he will even pawn his underwear, if it still worth some money, to go all in.

Base on the recent relative valuation done by DK66 and reaffirmed by Icon8888 IRR analysis of 8%disount factor instead of the management number 12%. We are very confident jaks at current level is an absolute steal.

If you already holding some, it is good enough. DO NOT be greedy, DO NOT borrow more money to buy more. You may not have the good karma or pahala or good lucks to earn that more.

If you still do not have any ticket, then you should listen to my sincere advice, cincai-cincai buy some just to avoid the unpleasant feeling of big heart pain when you see others make money and you did not.

Do not wait for lower, it is already reasonably low now. Market always move very fast ahead suddenly, you will most probably miss the boat. I sincerely do not hope you need to chase high and turn yourself no different from the snake oil seller every day shouting, BUY... BUY.. BUY.. TP5... TP6... TP10

That is the time DK66, OTB, ICON8888, PJSEOW will keep quiet but Aseng will tiu you non stop.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 12:11 | Report Abuse

Some expressed concern on the lack of dividend distribution from Vinh Tan 1 in my article. I have include an explanation in the article as well as an anticipation of future distribution pattern.

Please revisit the article https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Posted by edkfc > 2020-05-03 13:23 | Report Abuse

DK66 n OTB , given following situation its seem highly likely that Jaks will take up the additional 10% share to 40% by 2021 itself. Its like all green scenario ! What do you think ?

(a) cost of additional 10% is estimated to be rm260M ( quote DK)
(b) potential free cash flow attributable to Jaks = rm294 ( quote DK)
(c) The management is very eager to buy up another 10% of JHDP urgently.( quote OTB)

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 13:37 | Report Abuse

edkfc, the extra 10% is a 33% increase which is very significant. I do not want to be overly optimistic and speculative, 30% is good enough for me for now given the price is only around RM1.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 13:38 | Report Abuse

My first target price of RM2.50 is based on 30% interest in JHDP

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-03 14:29 | Report Abuse

Just taking DK's 1st TP guide of 2.50, it is already very juicy & tempting at Jaks current depressed price of around 1.00 !
Jaks can do it !!
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DK66>My first target price of RM2.50 is based on 30% interest in JHDP
03/05/2020 1:38 PM

Posted by nonamestupid > 2020-05-03 14:30 | Report Abuse

DK66 main tipu.. later sell a lot then you know.. have you seen warren buffet keep promoting a share? hahaha

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-03 14:51 | Report Abuse

Don't worry . We are matured investors & we do own due diligence before investing.
Our own money , we decide the fate and not others .

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 14:56 | Report Abuse

My latest article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP" provides an indisputable, reliable and convincing profit guidance for JHDP. It is straightforward and easy to understand.

I quote Aseng "Aseng is just a satayman selling satay at the roadside also can understand"
I quote warrantKing "I think your article is most reliable source to project JAKS's coming EPS."

The article has dismissed all accusations against me for providing imaginary forecasts.

Relative valuation by peer comparison is the most reliable method for making profit forecast of another company having high degree of similarity in characteristics including size, location, terms and conditions etc. This method alleviates the need for projection of future cash flow, hypothetical assumptions, management guidance and complicated computations.

I believe this article will rekindle investors' interest in Jaks including those attempting to buy low.

Those interested in the artilce may visit https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 15:14 | Report Abuse

Dear all,

I would like to hear your view on this article. How do you rate the reliability of profit guidance with reference to Vinh Tan 1 ?

Please share your thoughts

Thank you

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-03 15:14 | Report Abuse

Yes

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 15:18 | Report Abuse

DK66,

Relative valuation is most appropriate methodology for the forecast of Jaks power plant earnings. Less hypothetical assumption, no forecast of cash, the best is do not need to ask Andy Ang to verify the truth. He can't do it and he won't do it. The previous experience had told us, we are actually nobody in his eyes, he didn't even bother to meet us, what else can we expect from him. It is better to rely our own effort. You had done a good job, put in great effort to make the complicated calculation simple.
Thank you.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2020-05-03 15:20 | Report Abuse

Hai Duong kat face peer pressure to perform

Kan di benchmark against other similar Vietnam IPP

Can tell if it under performed

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-03 15:27 | Report Abuse

Agree with Aseng Gor !!
---------------------------------------------------------------
ASeng>DK66,
Relative valuation is most appropriate methodology for the forecast of Jaks power plant earnings. Less hypothetical assumption, no forecast of cash, the best is do not need to ask Andy Ang to verify the truth. He can't do it and he won't do it. The previous experience had told us, we are actually nobody in his eyes, he didn't even bother to meet us, what else can we expect from him. It is better to rely our own effort. You had done a good job, put in great effort to make the complicated calculation simple.
Thank you.
03/05/2020 3:18 PM

Posted by mf > 2020-05-03 15:44 | Report Abuse

Buffett on why he hasn’t made any big investments: ‘We don’t see anything that attractive’

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 15:59 | Report Abuse

if you ask me ,

"Aseng , what would you say if you want to tell a truth ?"

my answer ,

I it once in a life time

after the power plant stories or game had ended

you can't find another DK66 in i3


but

man is very funny

when there is a lot to fear, we fear nothing
when there is nothing to fear , we fear a lot

that is why i choose myself to be called a satayman than a sifu
03/05/2020 3:59 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 16:25 | Report Abuse

Dear All,

On second thought, I feel ashamed to claim credit for my article "Jaks Resources - The Most Reliable Earnings Guidance for JHDP"

The fact is I didn't perform any analysis in the article. I merely put Vinh Tan 1's results before you which could be easily done by anyone. Apart from the elaborative wordings, I didn't do much. The results of Vinh Tan 1 could speak for itself. I suppose that is why the article is very convincing.

Anyway, thanks for all the compliments which I feel I don't quite deserve.

In any case, I hope everyone can read the article and have a thought on this incredible opportunity.

Thank you

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 17:24 | Report Abuse

Dk66,

The most important criteria is honest, without fear and favour.
Good is good
Bad is bad

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 17:58 | Report Abuse

I like your comment

"Man can lie but data doesn't lie"

But

I still like to add some hard truth here

Although data doesn't lie but it doesn't mean it is telling the whole truth

We are not young, we know life better than many young people here

So, don't worry

As long as we are honest, nothing to hide

Right is right
Wrong is wrong
Good is good
Bad is bad

We have a good reason to protect us from any naysayers attacks

Posted by Talib > 2020-05-03 18:15 | Report Abuse

1.1 tomorrow?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-03 18:48 | Report Abuse

Since goods news already share many here, There are some bad news too many yet to highlight. in the next 2 quarter result, Jaks likely to record loss making quarter.

1. Q1 result (Jan - mar): Vietnam power plant construction activity resume only end of Mar after CNY. Therefore, in Q1 , Jaks only able to record 1 month construction progress profit.

2. Q2 result ( April- june): The Malaysia full impact in MCO on Jaks property development and investment properties will
be recorded. More LAD and higher loss in mall operation.

Also take note that as IPP at tail end of construction, Jaks still have outstanding balance RM 220m to settle for its 30% equity stake need to settle.

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-03 19:09 | Report Abuse

My thoughts on DK's peer comparison method of earnings forecast for Jaks .
Sensible, fair & reliable as both entities exhibit closest similarities in all aspects .
Simple, straight-forward , reliable & convincing .
Data on Vinh Tan 1 PP can't lie .
Laypersons , non-experts can easily comprehend .
Probably, the investors concern is on declaration of dividend and its repatriation.
On this issue , my personal view is that both JV partners will certainly not wish to see the excess cash remain idle in Vietnam . This is evident in the case of Mong Duong II.
Verdict : I am confident & I dumb dumb hold .
Current depressed price of around 1.00 is cheap & presents an opportunity .

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 19:20 | Report Abuse

VIN3133, Thanks for sharing your view
-------------------
VIN3133 My thoughts on DK's peer comparison method of earnings forecast for Jaks .
Sensible, fair & reliable as both entities exhibit closest similarities in all aspects .
Simple, straight-forward , reliable & convincing .
Data on Vinh Tan 1 PP can't lie .
Laypersons , non-experts can easily comprehend .
Probably, the investors concern is on declaration of dividend and its repatriation.
On this issue , my personal view is that both JV partners will certainly not wish to see the excess cash remain idle in Vietnam . This is evident in the case of Mong Duong II.
Verdict : I am confident & I dumb dumb hold .
Current depressed price of around 1.00 is cheap & presents an opportunity .
03/05/2020 7:09 PM

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 19:21 | Report Abuse

hng33, would you like to share your view on the article?

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 19:27 | Report Abuse

Monkey also knows that before the power plant starts contributing profit the coming quarters result can not be good.

Icon8888 had quoted some examples telling us a fact that we shouldn't be that shortsighted,
recently many strong fundement companies had announced bad quarter result but the share price move up more than 10% the next day.
Reason?
The price is already deeply undervalued but the fundamental of the company is still the same. As long as long term prospects is good, short-term pain can be ignored.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 19:27 | Report Abuse

Hbg33, The profit from the EPC contract will sum up to US$454.5 x 25% = US$113.6m which is enough for the future capital commitment of US$110m for its 30% stake

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 19:31 | Report Abuse

Aseng, the tone of hng33's remark solely depends on his position in Jaks. He is currently waiting to buy, so don't expect anything nice from him.

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-03 19:41 | Report Abuse

Lctitan is one glaring example !!
And many others !!
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Aseng > recently many strong fundamental companies had announced bad quarter result but the share price move up more than 10% the next day.

Posted by VIN3133 > 2020-05-03 20:05 | Report Abuse

Haha , from record , he is more of a short-term swing trader la !
He makes money also !
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DK66>Aseng, the tone of hng33's remark solely depends on his position in Jaks. He is currently waiting to buy, so don't expect anything nice from him.
03/05/2020 7:31 PM

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 20:31 | Report Abuse

DK66 & ViN3133

I read through my own comments
So far the one I like the most is this one

"Market can be erratical but not irrational
If you can't prove sifu calculation is wrong or has doubt after so many articles and for such long a time, then the only right thing to do is BUY."

I do not like to make thing too complicated
I use common sense and common logic to decide buy or sell

Posted by Aseng > 2020-05-03 20:42 | Report Abuse

Good night my good friends
Stay safe at home and sleep well
Tomorrow good or bad we leave it to the market to decide.

Posted by YONG > 2020-05-03 21:30 | Report Abuse

Ensuring the progress of the billion-dollar project.
https://baohaiduong.vn/doanh-nghiep/doanh-nghiep-no-luc-vuot-bao-covid-19-134965

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-03 22:02 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66

You have share important profit generating prospect on Jaks IPP, but Jaks also own many other loss making asset still yet to take into full account. Jaks assets in Malaysia is worth RM 600m including evolve mall and upcoming pacific mall and pacific office tower. The new mall and new office tower need high occupancy rate in order to achieve operation breakeven or risk of impairment goodwill if continuous operation loss.

Although Jaks control 51% stake, the other 49% is control by Jaks CEO Andy. Jaks as listed company and have power profit can still offset loss making mall and office tower, but CEO Andy at his capacity may not be able to stand such continue loss. Earlier in last Dec, Andy already opt to gradual transfer some office tower unit and car park lot to Jaks to offset his debt. There is risk for Andy to transfer more loss making investment properties to Jaks in order to absorb continuous loss.

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-03 22:09 | Report Abuse

Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall operation loss also added burden to Jaks financially.

Posted by Cloudboy > 2020-05-03 22:10 | Report Abuse

DK66 Aseng, the tone of hng33's remark solely depends on his position in Jaks. He is currently waiting to buy, so don't expect anything nice from him.


I have position in Jaks....but all this profit estimation by sifu here whether will come truth ..nobody know

And one more thing I wanted to highlight is... even Jaks hit whatever potential earning mentioned by the sifu here....whether andy ang will share the profit with the shareholder as a form of consistent dividend distribution or share buyback ...is a BIG question....???

History of Jaks management already shows execution risk.

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-03 22:18 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66

Up to last quarter result, Jaks still have outstanding commitment RM 220m balance for its 30% stake entitlement in IPP. Do you think the balance construction profit is enough to cover all these commitment?

Posted by hng33 > 2020-05-03 22:20 | Report Abuse

It is check and balance in turn of analyze Jaks to not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account setback face by Jaks in 2020.

Posted by DK66 > 2020-05-03 22:42 | Report Abuse

hng33, you are speculating too much. I have done an article proving that the property segment is insignificant in comparison to JHDP.

Do you have evidence that the balance 49% belongs to Andy ?

Pacific star project will be completed this year after which there will be no LAD.

Could you provide an estimate as the potential losses in property Jaks maybe facing ? So that readers can better comprehend the magnitude of the problem you are suggesting.

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hng33 Dear DK66

You have share important profit generating prospect on Jaks IPP, but Jaks also own many other loss making asset still yet to take into full account. Jaks assets in Malaysia is worth RM 600m including evolve mall and upcoming pacific mall and pacific office tower. The new mall and new office tower need high occupancy rate in order to achieve operation breakeven or risk of impairment goodwill if continuous operation loss.

Although Jaks control 51% stake, the other 49% is control by Jaks CEO Andy. Jaks as listed company and have power profit can still offset loss making mall and office tower, but CEO Andy at his capacity may not be able to stand such continue loss. Earlier in last Dec, Andy already opt to gradual transfer some office tower unit and car park lot to Jaks to offset his debt. There is risk for Andy to transfer more loss making investment properties to Jaks in order to absorb continuous loss.
03/05/2020 10:02 PM