YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
KLSE (MYR): YTLPOWR (6742)
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Last Price
1.30
Today's Change
+0.02 (1.56%)
Day's Change
1.26 - 1.31
Trading Volume
7,874,800
Prices
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25 people like this. Showing 50 of 13,487 comments
若PE是10,，目前的股价已经是合理的水平，再升的几率不高，除非4QFY23又来一次惊喜。
为什么几率不高呢？FY23的三个季度，EPS已经来到11.01 sen （2.14+2.45+6.41）。若第四季的EPS正常回去，大概单季2.3-2.4 sen的水平，全年EPS会到13.5 sen。所以目前股价是正常的了。
不过，假如4QFY23再来一次的盈利爆炸，单季EPS来到6 sen或以上，让全年EPS冲到17 sen的时候，股价就会升到RM1.70，若PE是10。
5 days ago
问题是：来季盈利爆炸的可能性有多高呢？
我个人是预算会有再一次的盈利爆炸，所以我1.33时，已经加仓一次。
我的预算基础如下：
1. 新加坡的营业额肯定会维持同样水平或更高，因为炎热的气候，加上新加坡的经济健康。更炎热的气候，会让营业额再维持至少一个季度的可能性，是非常高的。
2．净利率有机会维持在相同水平，若和3QFY23对比。这是因为政府和发电商有2年的合约。我个人推测，这合约不会只一份。虽然不知道什么时候到期，预计还会再维持至少一两个季度。加上电供吃紧，是会推高净利率。相反地，供过于求的时候，净利率就会严重下跌（前几年的悲惨就是出于供过于求，这也证实了，电供吃紧是确保高盈利的首要要素，比政府的合约更重要，也比天然气价格更重要。这也说明了为何3QFY23会盈利爆炸，不就是出于电供吃紧吗？）。目前电供已经是吃紧的了，加上温度是持续攀高。这些都可以支撑高的净利率。
3. 上一季，英国是亏损。这一季，4QFY23是开始起价的季度，英国业务是可以由亏转盈的。
4. 约旦的启动费会耗一些资金，不过数额是无从可知。不过，也有可能会提供一些盈利也说不定。
5. YES的亏损会进一步扩大，不过YES的亏损已经是常态，预料之中。
6. 数据中心会继续烧钱，上一季也已有反映。
总结：带来盈利的业务，会继续提供同样的盈利的可能性是有的。亏损的业务，在上一季也已经是亏损的了。所以，维持6 sen一季的可能性，是有的。
5 days ago
再次强调：新加坡的盈利，全看电供吃不吃紧。我个人推测，电供吃紧是确保高盈利的首要要素，比政府的合约更重要，也比天然气价格更重要。所以，只要新加坡的电供持续吃紧，PS的盈利就会持续保持高位。
5 days ago
我在想，新加坡的电价的价格，有没有可能就像机票一样。
我们都知道，无论亚航或马航，一旦机位爆满，最后2%机位的价格是非常惊吓的。
同样的，新加坡的电供吃紧，甚至是特别紧的时候，最后2%的吃紧电供的价格，会不会也是同样非常惊吓的呢？
我觉得可能性是有的。
5 days ago
Well said @xiaochen.
Your analogy of Singapore electricity rates and air tickets is appropriate. Electricity prices will rise when supply is tight, and will fall when demand softens.
5 days ago
@probability, I have put in some comments in that article trying to answer your queries
4 days ago
@i3lucker, I am afraid that you were wrong on the valuation of utilities companies.
FYI, Keppel and Sembcorp are trading at PER of 13x to 14x.
The three water utilities companies that are listed in the UK are trading at PER of over 20x.
YTLP disposed off Electranet, an utility company, at PER of over 30x.
I hope you know what you were talking about.
Just be patient, and you will get a good time to accumulate YTLP as EPF is selling aggressively now and state elections are coming soon.
4 days ago
EPF just ceased to be a substantial shareholder of YTLP and still has some 400 million shares for potential sell off. Looking at its aggressive selling of 5m to 6m a day, it would probably take 67 to 80 days for EPF to completely sell off its stakes in YTLP.
Compared to YTL, EPF has been even more aggressive in selling, sometimes at over 20m shares a day, so its stakes in YTL should be low now. That's why we see YTL share has been running up more than YTLP which is capped by EPF selling.
4 days ago
@dragon328, you mentioned on Wessex RAB as per below:
-The beauty of a regulated asset is that it never loses money and its asset base will always expand along with inflation.
-With rising interest rates in next 2 years, Wessex is entering a rapid asset expansion phase with its RAB expected to increase by over 500 million pounds in 2020-2025 regulatory period.
wouldn't rising interest rate would actually reduce the inflation rate? Appreciate if you could enlighten more on the mechanism of RAB valuation..
4 days ago
https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/67695.jsp
We came away from its analysts briefing last Friday feeling positive about its earnings outlook. The key takeaways are as follows:
1. The company expects PowerSeraya’s earnings to sustain at least in the next 2-3 years given: (i) no new plant-up of power plants in Singapore for the next three years which would sustain good retail price that it currently enjoys, (ii) no more “take or pay” LNG supply agreements which have ended between 2020 and 2023, which reduces input costs, and (iii) its locked-in low gas prices secured during the early days of the pandemic which will last for the next 2- 3 years, thus keeping its fuel cost low.
4 days ago
Thanks probability for the update article.
Basically what the management updated to analysts as highlighted in the article is in line with my understanding, the positive surprise is the confirmation that Jordan power plant has achieved full commercial operations and will soon receive some payments from the offtaker.
4 days ago
Yes, rising interest rates will tend to lower inflation as a normal tool used by central banks to tame inflation.
In the case of Wessex Waters, high inflation will increase operating costs and erode profits, and rising interest rates will increase borrowing costs and erode profits.
High operating costs will be compensated through higher water tariffs in the operating cost component of the water tariff. Higher interest rates will result in a higher WACC (weighted average cost of capital) used to calculate the water tariffs which will adjust higher to compensate for the higher interest costs.
4 days ago
ah ok, i got it dragon328...so the value goes up as per the rise in cost of equity and debt
4 days ago
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB Research) is still optimistic about YTL Power International Bhd's prospects, which are supported by profit sustainability over the next three years.
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2023/06/917020/hlib-remains-optimistic-about-ytl-powers-earnings-potential
4 days ago
The investment bank has reiterated its "Buy" recommendation on the stock, with an unchanged target price of RM2.05
HLG TP 2.05
4 days ago
EPF keeps selling could this because majority assets of YTLPower are not in Malaysia, and taxes are not paid in Malaysia rather than pessimistic about the prospect, valuation or profitability of YTLPower ?
4 days ago
Epf was 5% equity owner back in 2018. The recent run up is logical for them to dispose. No sentiments. Epf looks at returns.
4 days ago
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行家论股
【行家论股】杨忠礼电力 数字银行扩大收入
2023年06月06日
分析：肯纳格投行研究
目标价：1.48令吉
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最新进展：
杨忠礼电力（YTLPOWR，6742，主板公用事业股）指出，新加坡子公司杨忠礼西拉雅能源（Power Seraya）将是近期盈利主要推手。
同时，Wessex水务也将受到电费率上调约9%而恢复盈利能力。
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杨忠礼电力 YTLPOWR
行家建议：
我们在出席了公司的分析汇报会后，对其盈利前景保持积极看法。
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我们了解到，由于新加披未来3年内将不会有新建发电厂，将使零售价保持目前的良好水平，加上投入成本下降，让Power Seraya未来2至3年的盈利表现有望保持。
另外，对于Wessex水务于4月起受到上调电费率带动，预计将足以抵消营运成本走高，让业务转亏为盈。
公司持股45%的约旦Attarat发电厂，最近实现商业运营日期（COD），我们预计很快能收到承销商付款。
再者，其在柔佛耗资150亿令吉打造绿色数据中心园区，第一阶段的建设将于2024年首季竣工。
公司认为，该新行业潜力巨大，特别是中国科技公司如阿里巴巴、冬海集团和其他公司在东南亚设立服务器带来的强劲需求。
公司预计，其与冬海集团联营标得数字银行的财团，也将在2025财年贡献收益。
长期展望，我们看好数据中心和数字银行业务将扩大公司的盈利来源。
我们继续看好公司，维持“超越大市”评级，以及1.48令吉目标价不变。
4 days ago
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/07/ytl-power-to-gain-from-higher-income
4QFY23的成绩有可能强过3QFY23。这不是不得了吗？
这预测，是根据什么呢？
The research house said the ongoing heatwave and renewal of retail contracts would help the unit post a stronger performance in the 4Q23.
这有理由，新加坡4-6月的气温不是高过1-3月吗？马币兑换率4-6月，马币不是更弱了吗？
Earnings support will also come from its UK based water supply and sewage utility, Wessex Water Services Ltd, which has been allowed to raise water tariff by 9% since April, according to the research house. The utility posted a pre-tax loss of RM47.2mil in the recent quarter but the 9% increase in tariff rate should enable it to offset raising operational costs and enable a turnaround in its financial performance in the quarters ahead, said Kenanga Research.
英国有机会有亏转盈
Kenanga Research said the group’s 45%-owned 554-megawatt oil shale-fired Attarah power plant in Jordan has achieved full commercial operation date recently and would receive payment from its off-taker, National Electric Power Co soon.
约旦极有可能提供第一次盈利。
3 days ago
Due to the upswing in prospects, the research house has an “outperform” call on YTL Power with a target price (TP) of RM1.48 per share.
HLIB Research has a “buy” call on the stock with an unchanged TP of RM2.05 a share but taking into consideration a six sen dividend for FY23 and eight sen for FY24-25 respectively.
“We believe the current valuation is undemanding, while earnings and dividend may surprise on the upside,” HLIB Research added.
预测，股息大概是6仙。不过有机会派更高的息。
有没有可能HLB给TP是RM2.05，是基于预测4QFY23的EPS是9仙呢？
9仙，等于720M的净利。有没有可能呢？
3 days ago
The question is, would the company be still around in 5 to 10 years time? Given its net profits is a megre Rm1.2 Billion(the best over the past 5 years) to service the principal repayment of a huge debt of RM36 Billion? Anyone can enlighten?
2 days ago
@wps123, I don't know where you got the figure of RM36 billion debt from. Based on latest quarterly report as of 31 Mar 2023, YTLPower had total debts of RM30.9 billion and RM8.9 billion of cash, so net debt of RM22.0 billion. Pls get your facts right before you made baseless allegation.
YTLP operating cashflows totalled RM2,171 million for 9 months of FY2023 and topped RM1.0 billion for 3Q FY2023 alone, annualised to RM4.0 billion. Minus off capex of about RM2.0 billion, YTLP will still have RM2.0 billion of free cashflows or 25 sen per share every year. It can support easily 20 sen dividend payouts every year going forward.
The debts mentioned above are mostly sitting at subsidiary level and ring-fenced at each subsi company, i.e. they will not have any repercussion nor cause any cross default to the holding company. FYI, there is some few hundred millions of free cash at the holding company level for future project investments. The debts sitting at the subsidiary levels like Wessex and PowerSeraya are tied to the long term assets, and have their own repayment programs and financial covenants such as for a long term bond with bullet payment at maturity. Debt servicing is never a problem, especially now with strong cashflows from PowerSeraya (that top SGD1.0 billion a year) and impending turnaround in Wessex profits.
You should spend some time studying the balance sheet and cashflow statements, rather than just making baseless claims that made yourself look stxpid.
2 days ago
If you do not know how to read balance sheet and cashflow statements, or are too lazy to make an effort to study the company prospects , but base your investment decision just based on hear-say or ah beng ah lian critics, pls move to other counter. We don't need such traders over here. We prefer investors who are patient and ready to hold for 2-3 years at least.
If you missed the boat and like to see the share price drop to buy in, you may get the chance in next 2 months. Don't simply sabotage and derate a company by using generic remarks with wrong facts.
2 days ago
aiyoh dragon328, why u so garang one? wps123 just made a mistake and u scold him kaw kaw like a little boy? releklah bro. chill!
2 days ago
I would add to facts provided by dragon328, in responding to wps123, and to enlighten wps123 further ...
YTLPower holds further liquid investments of RM1.2bil (see latest Annual Report bottom page 216), so net debt reduces further to RM21bil. More importantly, Wessex debts equivalent to RM16.4bil (see recent 3Q results page 23) are substantially long-dated - some RM10bil only repayable from 2026 until 2058 (again, refer to latest Annual Report).
So debt repayment in medium term very manageable, in spite of net profits being 'meagre' as suggested ...
2 days ago
I usually check the forumer's background when reading such comments. Our friend has joined i3 since 2017 but has only posted 3 comments so far.
2 days ago
El Niño planet-warming weather phase has begun
Published
4 hours ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65839060
There's also a strong likelihood that this year's version will push 2024 past 2016 as the world's hottest year.
2 days ago
What happened during the last El Nino?
The last major El Nino event occurred in 2016. It affected more than 60 million people, particularly in eastern and southern Africa, the horn of the Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Asia pacific region.
It disrupted crop production, imposed societal distress and resulted in peak energy consumption
Unprecedented heatwaves driven by this major El Nino event made 2016 the hottest year on record in Singapore (since 1929) and globally
2 days ago
For those companies with debts, the only problem is increase in interest payment will eat into their profit. Some may not survive like what happen during the Asean financial crisis in year 1998 when interest rate go thro' the roof.
During that period, I still remember my bank send me letter every month that interest rate has increase till my monthly house loan installment payment sum cannot cover the interest payment.
By the way YTL group had survived and even prosper during the many past financial crisis.
2 days ago
In 1998 the interest rate was increased to defend the depreciation of RM against USD.
Soro even tell Dr.M see you at 5.0. Later Dr.M on 1 Septembeer 1998 introduced strong capital/currency control and fix the ringgit exchange rate at RM3. 8 to the US dollar, compared to the pre-crisis rate of around RM2.5.
2 days ago
Haha, maybe our bro. D328 tak tahan El Nino.
Be prepared, the El Nino has arrived, since 9/6/2023.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2587985/its-official-el-nino-has-arrived
1 day ago
Apologies for my harsh words. But I was simply fed up with those people who simply put out offensive remarks or baseless allegations.
Just like the case of Daibochi last year when someone buta buta defended the unreasonable privatisation of Daibochi by Scientex. I predicted very early on that the privatisation attempt would fail simply based on the low offer price and the bright prospects of Daibochi then. It indeed failed miserably. That guy was saying how good Scientex as a company was and how great the boss was, but that was not the point. The point of discussion was the low offer price.
Anyway, I will not respond to these baseless remarks anymore. Waste of time.
1 day ago
@speakup, yes I need to chill out under such hot weather. Will go for a short trip in coming weekend.
1 day ago
see just now someone sold almost 1 million shares of YTLP in a couple of minutes and pressed down the share price to RM1.26. It might have been EPF who still has over 400m shares of YTLP. We may get opportunities like this in next 2 months to accumulate YTLP at lower prices.
1 day ago
Epf gives good opportunity for cheap collection..
Once the stocks in epf depleted is end 9f cheap sale.
It is 2 mons time till next good QR coming...
Everything is right timing
1 day ago
Power project in Jordan reaches full operating status
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202305/31/WS6477022ba3107584c3ac32da.html
根据报道，第二单位的发电组织推算是在1/6/23，星期五，开始了商业模式。
看来，盈利贡献有限，只占2QCY2023的一个月，而且是单一单位罢了。
不过，这已经是很好的结果了。
期待另一个单位的启动日。
1 day ago
It's clear some ppl SHORTed this morning betting on the ex-dividend price being much lower lol
1 day ago
Dulu saya melanggan www.188.com bagitau beli saham yg ada dividend, walaupun harga saham jatuh masih dpt pendapatan.
18 hours ago
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GoldenBull66
UK too suffering from hot weather. More water consumption with higher tariff.
6 days ago