YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD

KLSE (MYR): YTLPOWR (6742)

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Last Price

1.30

Today's Change

-0.02 (1.52%)

Day's Change

1.27 - 1.34

Trading Volume

10,012,900

IPO Info
Offer Period

Opening

Closing

Time Table

Allotment Date

Listing Date

Price

Issue Price

-

Units

-

Share Capital

0.000

No of Shares

Public Issue

-

Offer for Sale

-

Private Placement

-

Issuing House

-

ISIN Code

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Prospectus:

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Discussions
25 people like this. Showing 50 of 13,438 comments

dragon328

PMetal has taken some 20 months to rise 3x from RM2.00 in May 2020 to RM6.00 in Jan 2022 and peak at RM7.00 in Mar 2022.

Expect YTLPower to follow suit to rise 3x from current RM1.30 in May 2022 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2024.

4 days ago

rchi

Dragon328,appreciate all the work you have done.

4 days ago

rchi

Best for this stock is it derived most income from spore,n is less affected by weak msian economy.The strengthening sgd is a double bonus.

4 days ago

rchi

investing in ytlp acts as a hedge to weak ringgit as well

4 days ago

rchi

tenaga's pe is 14 times,imagine if ytlp is to attain pe 14 or even pe 7.

4 days ago

dragon328

apologies, the timing should be like:

YTL Power should rise from current RM1.30 in May 2023 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2025.

The timing of Mar 2025 should be right as by then:
1) PowerSeraya should continue to report strong earnings due to tight supply (Keppel new plant only comes in 1H 2026)
2) Wessex will have its new water tariffs adjusted up substantially for the new 5-year regulatory period due to its enlarged RAB and to compensate the high interest rates it is suffering these 2 years from a higher WACC
3) 1st phase green data centre should have been up and running contribution new earnings stream
4) digital bank business should find its footing after 1 year of operations
5) more visibility in power export timeline to Singapore

4 days ago

ValueInvestor888

What is the estimated profit for green data centre?
It is quite certain PowerSeraya will make explosive profit in next quarter due to hot weather..

4 days ago

dragon328

Due to heat wave and current tight supply market, PowerSeraya will make strong profit for this Q4 quarter. I will be very happy if it can maintain the gross profit margin as in Q3, i.e. a Profit Before Tax of S$230 million a quarter.

As for green data centre, it is a volume game. As the capex requirement is huge at RM1.5 bn for just the 1st phase of 48MW, so you would imagine equity cashflows may be sizable at about RM50 m in first 10 years then jump to RM200 million a year after the debt is fully repaid.

4 days ago

dragon328

That is based on my own calculations assuming a low teen project IRR for the green data centre project

4 days ago

ValueInvestor888

Thanks dragon...based on google search, the IRR ranged from 10%-18%...

4 days ago

dragon328

EPF sold 10m shares of YTLP last Friday when total volume traded on that day was 40m. Now EPF is left with just 5.03% stake in YTLP, soon will cease to be a substantial shareholder. I estimate that EPF's stake in YTL Corp has reduced to probably just 1% or lower after relentless selling in past few weeks. It has made a mistake in selling YTL too early, now making another mistake in selling YTLP.

Whatever it is selling has been morked up by a bigger foreign fund, looking at the last minute buy volume of over 5 million just now that pushed YTLP to close at day high of 1.36.

Soon when EPF is left with 1% or so stake in YTLP, we will see the share price of YTLP jumping as fiercely as YTL shares now.

4 days ago

Alex Chua

Maybe temasek buying lols

4 days ago

myloh123

Epf is actively trading, n will profit take at 10% returns...biggest punter 🤣

4 days ago

myloh123

DSAI directed EPF local investment allocation increase by 7% to 70% another RM 60b....so you will see EPF super actively trading in Bursa.

4 days ago

myloh123

YTLP current price based on Q1 2023 earnings sud b Rm2...do u will see a run up quickly to Rm 2.

4 days ago

myloh123

As we know , stock prices is futuristic.

4 days ago

myloh123

Ask D328 to price in further earnings

4 days ago

chon99

myloh123,

Thank you for pointing out what
our Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim wanted EPF to increase local investments as downloaded above.


4 days ago

Tibbers

May hit 1.50 before ex date dividend.

3 days ago

Invest_888

EPF disposed 10 million shares, YTLP will stop to fly for a while. Mid term(1 to 3 months), I do think Ytlp share price will go up again to RM1.5 due to its earning esp in oversea i.e. Spore.

3 days ago

goody99

volume not particularly big so far. Need to monitor.

Its share price has been up close to 100% and at all time high, so if people decide to sell, it is normal

3 days ago

mf

collect

3 days ago

Alwinb

Dragon, Any insight with regard to YTL PowerSeraya Pte. Limited

Linde, ST Telemedia Global Data Centres, YTL PowerSeraya and YTL Data Center to explore feasibility of using hydrogen generated power in Singapore

3 days ago

pang72

Ytlpower holding well at 1.32

3 days ago

pang72

Maybank tp1. 50

3 days ago

pang72

"UK Wessex Water is expected to turn around in the subsequent quarter after the tariff revision of nine per cent effective April 2023.

3 days ago

pang72

Coming QR be much better including Wessex turn around

3 days ago

pang72

HLIB Research has raised YTL Power's FY23-25f earnings by 25 to 84 per cent, and maintained a "BUY" with a higher target price of RM2.05, from RM1.50 previously, given the strong earnings recovery and attractive dividend yield.

3 days ago

myloh123

Becareful this counter is a darling of d pump n dump synicates...dun get caught on the wrong end.

3 days ago

willc48

YTL is Hit

3 days ago

chon99

At this hour of the day ( Friday 02-06-2023 12.30 a.m ,) Dow Jones and Nasdaq surge up with strong momentum.

3 days ago

Zhuge_Liang

Dear dragon328,
I am very impressed with your outlook on YTLPower.
I want to learn from you.
I believe you are very knowledgeable on this stock.
Please help us to project the PAT and EPS for FY 2024 (June) and FY 2025 (June) respectively so that we will know how you project the share price of YTL Power to be 5.00 by Mar 2025.
Thank you for your help.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

apologies, the timing should be like:

YTL Power should rise from current RM1.30 in May 2023 to RM5.00 level by Mar 2025.

The timing of Mar 2025 should be right as by then:
1) PowerSeraya should continue to report strong earnings due to tight supply (Keppel new plant only comes in 1H 2026)
2) Wessex will have its new water tariffs adjusted up substantially for the new 5-year regulatory period due to its enlarged RAB and to compensate the high interest rates it is suffering these 2 years from a higher WACC
3) 1st phase green data centre should have been up and running contribution new earnings stream
4) digital bank business should find its footing after 1 year of operations
5) more visibility in power export timeline to Singapore

2 days ago

mf

rebound

2 days ago

Invest_888

Consolidating before going up.

2 days ago

dragon328

@Alwinb, I have suggested once for PowerSeraya to consider retrofitting some of its gas turbines to be able to burn green hydrogen which may be produced in Malaysia in the future, as I noticed that Keppel had already announced to go ahead with its new hydrogen-powered turbine to come in around 1H2026.

I hope PowerSeraya does look into such a possibility to see if it will be feasible to do so.

2 days ago

dragon328

@Zhuge-Liang, very roughly my projections are as follow. By FY2024, I am projecting for:

1) PowerSeraya to report similar level of PBT of around RM800 million to RM1.0 billion a quarter
2) Wessex to report normalised PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter
3) 1st phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM10-15 million per quarter, subsequent phases to contribute PBT of RM50-75m a quarter from FY2025
4) digital bank business to contribute PBT of around RM10-20 million per quarter
5) Jordan power is fully commissioned by then and contribute PBT of RM50 million per quarter

SO if we add up the above, PBT will top RM1,050 - 1,200 million per quarter, annualised to RM4.0 billion to RM4.8 billion a year.

After tax profit may be around RM3.0 billion to RM3.6 billion resulting in EPS of 35 sen to 45 sen.

Cashflows will be around RM4.0 billion a year or 50 sen per share, supporting dividend payouts of minimum 25 sen.

So at 5% dividend yield, YTLP should trade to RM5.00 per share, or at PER of 11x to 15x.

2 days ago

dragon328

The projections above are based on latest quarterly results and my own calculations of future contributions from green data centre and digital bank, don't quote me on that. I may be over bullish or under appreciating the earnings contribution just like I missed on the strong earnings of PowerSeraya.

2 days ago

ValueInvestor888

@ i guess should include loss making Yes and other ventures to be more prudence. Digital bank may not give good profit. having said this, YTL still have potential to make RM3b per year by 2025...

2 days ago

Zhuge_Liang

Thank you dragon328.
Very good information for my reference.
You are very kind to share information here.
I have very good faith in you.
Really appreciate your effort.

2 days ago

goody99

We may have a situation like what's in the blog below:

Ranhill reported reduced profit - Koon Yew Yin
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/koonyewyinblog/2023-06-01-story-h-268856550-Ranhill_reported_reduced_profit_Koon_Yew_Yin

When good QR is reported, people start notice. When the company reports an exceptional QR, the hot money keep coming in. Some people expect the latest QR as the new normal. Expectation is high. Unfortunately the next QR is back to normal. Investors lose money.

PowerSeraya reported result that was beyond our wildest dream. My biggest question is whether its result can be sustained in the next QR. I read 2 analyst reports above and noticed that the analyst did not project similar EPS for next QR. I will not buy more before the next QR

2 days ago

dragon328

@goody99, it is normal for analysts to be skeptical of the super strong Q3 of YTLP as PowerSeraya earnings were beyond my own most bullish projection. But after I back calculated, it turned out to be entirely logical for PowerSeraya to make such a gross profit of S$80/MWh during tight supply market.

As I stated before, gross generation margin averaged at S$60-80/MWh during the tight market in 2009-2013, so it is possible for generation margin to fluctuate between S$60/MWh to S$80/MWh during this tight supply market. So don't be surprised if PowerSeraya earnings get pulled back by S$30 million in Q4, that means gross generation margin softens to S$70/MWh. On the other hand, it is equally possible for gross generation margin to strengthen further to S$90/MWh which will add S$30 million of profits.

Anyway, let the number speak for itself in late August then.

2 days ago

Alwinb

Dragon328, YTL and Seraya Power together with industry leaders like Linde have since signed MOU in 2022 to explore feasibility of using hydrogen generated power in Singapore.
Hopefully, we see some positive updates on the above initiative soon.

2 days ago

chon99

At this hour of the day (03-06-2023 Saturday 12.15 a.m. Dow Jones jumps up more than 500 points )

2 days ago

probability

@dragon328, would like to hear your comments on some of the conclusions i am making as per my comments on your blog here:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/dragon328/2022-12-06-story-h-303952239-YTL_Power_the_Rising_Power_in_Singapore.jsp

15 hours ago

i3lurker

Fund Managers' ultimate DECISION is actually the reverse of what you fantasize to be real.

utilities are always 100% assigned the lowest PE possible.
In developed countries, utilities PE is always below PE6.
In some developing countries, you would be able to buy at below PE6

fantasizing about it will not make it go above PE6

14 hours ago

i3lurker

comparing ...
fantasizing about HRC did not make it real.
parri passu
fantasizing about utilities will be same result.

14 hours ago

GoldenBull66

Hot weather. Leads to more power consumption. Next QR shd be good.

11 hours ago

GoldenBull66

UK too suffering from hot weather. More water consumption with higher tariff.

8 hours ago

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