Posted by speakup > 2023-09-21 20:07 | Report Abuse

This forum reminds me of Hengyuan forum, semua gaduh gaduh je

Posted by smartly > 2023-09-21 20:09 | Report Abuse

Posted by speakup > 56 seconds ago | Report Abuse

This forum reminds me of Hengyuan forum, semua gaduh gaduh je
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LOL !

Posted by icecool > 2023-09-21 22:46 | Report Abuse

gaduh gadub then the price go to the moon

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 09:22 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong research releases an update report on YTL Power today after a meeting with the management. Key updates are:
1) YTLP management guided for earnings sustainability for next 3 years
2) PowerSeraya earnings for FY2024 will be stronger, driven by tight market supply, high locked-in retails margin and secured long term cheap LNG supply
3) The 45% asscoiate Attarat Power in Jordan will contribute total RM300 million earnings in FY2024 from operations & maintenance and interests from shareholders' loans
4) YTLDC will roll out total 500MW of green data centre over next 10 years with total investments of RM15 billion. The 1st phase of 72MW is under construction (48MW secured with SEA Group) and will start contributing earnings in early 2024.
5) The development of 500MW LSS with SIPP at Kulai site will primarily to support the green data centres there. In addition to this, there will be opportunity to roll out more solar power for potential RE export to Singapore as well as to meet demand in Malaysia under NETR
6) The development of WTE plant with KDEB with 58MW power output expandable to 122.5MW at later stage will ensure longer term earnings growth for YTLP

Posted by KingKKK > 2023-09-22 09:27 | Report Abuse

4) YTLDC will roll out total 500MW of green data centre over next 10 years with total investments of RM15 billion. The 1st phase of 72MW is under construction (48MW secured with SEA Group) and will start contributing earnings in early 2024.

Data centre means higher demand for transformers.

This is good for Success Transformers (SUCCESS, Stock code: 7207), this is a laggard for data centre play theme

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 09:30 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong re-iterates tp of RM2.90 for YTLPower using sum-of-parts valuation.

It projects a net profit of RM2.0 billion for YTLP in FY2024. I think Hong Leong has under-estimated the following:
1) it has totally omitted earnings contribution from Attarat Power associate, by only recognising contribution from the O&M company and shareholders' loans. There should be potentially an additional RM200 million of profit to be recognised from the JV every year
2) Hong Leong may have under-estimated earnings contribution from PowerSeraya which alone should deliver at least RM2.07 billion net profit to YTLP in FY2024 & FY2025
3) Hong Leong has not included any earnings contribution from green data centre business

YTLP should be able to deliver net profit of around RM3.0 billion in FY2024, which will pose an upside of 50% to Hong Leong's projection. Once it manages to prove that in late Nov with the Q1 FY2024 result, I believe the analysts will upgrade their earnings projections for YTLP

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-22 09:47 | Report Abuse

Based on FA, I try to use PAT to project share price of YTLPower in 2023/2024.
1.) Please note that Q4 Jun 2023 PAT at 1.13 billion alone is 93% of the (whole year) or annual PAT of 2010 at 1.211 billion.
2.) Highest PAT in 2010 = 1.211 billion, the share price was = 1.43 (record high share price).
3.) Highest PAT in 2023 = 2.022 billion, the share price should be = 2.39 (based on item 2 calculation).
4.) If the projected highest PAT in 2024 = 3.000 billion, the share price should be = 3.54 (based on item 2 calculation).

The PAT of FY2024 is higher than PAT of FY2023, there is a growth in PAT in FY2024.
The share price of YTLPower will move up north as long as there is a growth in PAT in FY2024.
The trading volume of YTLPower is so huge, big funds are buying this stock, hence it is very difficult for the share price to drop to a new low.
Let time tells us who is the eventual winner in this stock.
Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 09:54 | Report Abuse

There are a several weak points in Hong Leong SOP valuation of YTLpower:

1) Wessex Waters' RAB has expanded to over 3.6 billion pounds, at 1.20x RAB, Wessex should be worth ((3.6 x 1.2) - 2.4) x 5.90 = RM11.3 billion, some RM1.2 billion higher than HL's value

2) PowerSeraya should deliver net profit of at least SGD760m a year for next 2-3 years. At PER of 10x (similar to that of Sembcorp and Keppel), PowerSeraya should be valued at SGD7.6 billion minimum. Minus net debt of SGD1.0bn, PowerSeraya should be worth SGD6.6bn or RM22.8 billion, some RM4.6bn higher than HL number

3) Attarat Power is expected to contribute earnings of RM400-500 million a year to YTLPower for next 30 years. Hence it should be valued at at least RM4.0billion to RM5.0 billion whether on PER or DCF method, doubling of what HL has valued

4) YTLP has an estimated net cash of almost RM2.0 billion at holding level, but HL has got it wrong at net debt of RM5.6 billion, a difference of RM7.6 billion

5) HL has not given any value to YTLP's green data centre business. As pointed out earlier, at NEXTDC valuation or Singtel's disposal of its regional data centre business to KKR at around USD35 million/MW, the 1st phase of 48MW data centre of YTLP should be valued at USD35m x 48 = USD1.68 billion or RM7.8 billion Enterprise Value. Minus out debt of RM1.1 billion for the 1st phase, the equity value should be worth RM6.7 billion.

With these 5 differences above, HL has under-estimated a total of RM22.3 billion or RM2.75 per share.

If added with this, the SOP valuation of YTLP should increase to RM3.23 + 2.75 = RM5.98 per share. Minus 10% holding discount, YTLP SOP value should be around RM5.38.

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-22 09:56 | Report Abuse

The share price of YTLPower is in a technical bull market.
Likewise, Utilities Index is also in a technical bull market.
Even KLSE is bearish, the share price of YTLPower will continue to break new high soon.
Good luck to all investors in this forum.
Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 10:01 | Report Abuse

Even if I take a 50% discount to regional data centre valuation, YTLP's 1st phase data centre will be worth RM2.8 billion or RM0.35 per share of YTLP. YTLP should be worth RM4.90 per share based on SOP valuation above.

Just imagine when YTLP fully develops the 500MW green data centre at Kulai, how much value it will add?

Posted by MrFox > 2023-09-22 10:04 | Report Abuse

whateverlah! this counter is a must buy for investment

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-22 10:06 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 got link to HLB updated report?

Posted by Go lucky Happy > 2023-09-22 10:27 | Report Abuse

@dragon328, agree with you. Added to that, ytlpower is also supporting TNB in providing electricity in our country.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 11:14 | Report Abuse

@cgtan2020, I cannot find you in i3 messenger and send you the file. Perhaps you message me first then I send you the pdf file

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 11:19 | Report Abuse

http://www.hlgs.hongleong.com.my/published/article/SmprHzLsdd4ArFSiPqB53BVVOwuebLyeX1BBkEl5PN_u7GXBlESj1SjNRLqUcnohTTwtyZNEPqr8kmXxRZNZhnbPbBDnd4qNpWyHJTxMwPs1

try this link

Posted by yewnamhung > 2023-09-22 11:24 | Report Abuse

Ini macam 👍👍👍

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 11:33 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong has valued PowerSeraya based on 3.5x Price/Book FY2022, but PowerSeraya book value has increased over SGD600 million in past 12 months to June 2023 (with net debts reduced by the same). Hence, PowerSeraya valuation should be increased by SGD600m x 3.5 = SGD2.1 billion or RM7.1 billion to RM25.3 billion.

Posted by probability > 2023-09-22 11:40 | Report Abuse

thanks for the link @dragon328

Posted by OnTime > 2023-09-22 11:49 | Report Abuse

it's comforting to know ytlp management has such a long range business visibility.

Posted by KLV868 > 2023-09-22 12:12 | Report Abuse

Very fruitful & informative comments from your guys , thanks, I am looking forward to the end of the year who is handsome winner that prevail.

Posted by MrFox > 2023-09-22 12:58 | Report Abuse

very good mid day closing

Posted by jenson68 > 2023-09-22 13:30 | Report Abuse

Great news & thx for the update @dragon328 !! HL very optimistic on the TP , gogogo

Posted by UnknownSpecies > 2023-09-22 13:31 | Report Abuse

HLIB sees potential inclusion of YTL Corp, YTL Power into KLCI in November review
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/683523

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-09-22 14:20 | Report Abuse

According to HLIB,
For YTLP, the investment bank kept its “buy” rating and target price unchanged at RM2.90.
HLIB does not have a rating for YTL Corp, but has opined that it has a fair value of RM2.10.

Difference is 80c.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 14:22 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong has not given any value to YTLP sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation on the following:

1) Yes 5G business
2) Rawang WTE plant
3) Digital bank JV
4) Potential solar power farm in Malaysia to meet NETR demands
5) Potential RE export to Singapore

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-22 14:26 | Report Abuse

Dear dragon328,
From your opinion, what is the PBT or PAT in FY2024 result for the followings ?
1.) Water & sewerage
2.) Telecommunication (5G YES)
3.) Data Centre
Please advise.
Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 14:44 | Report Abuse

Mr. OTB, I will try to give my best estimates for earnings contribution for the 3 sectors you asked above.

First, Wessex Waters reported a pretax loss last quarter Q4 FY2023 of RM57 million as it accrued a non-cash provision of RM54 million forindex-linked bonds.

As UK central bank just announced to pause interest rate hike in its last meeting a couple of days ago, I expect no more provision on index-linked bonds in the following quarters, and hence I expect Wessex just to break even for Q1, Q2 & Q3 FY2024.

Depending on how much water tariff hike it can secured for period commencing 1st April 2024, Wessex should start reporting profits from Q4 FY2024.

Assuming it can secure another 9% averaged hike in water tariffs, I expect Wessex to report PBT of RM88 million for Q4 FY2024.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 15:12 | Report Abuse

As for Yes 5G business, I see encouraging signs in last few months after Yes was the first to roll out 5G services in Klang Valley expanding to the rest of Malaysia.

In FY2023, YTLP telecommunications segment reported revenue of RM603m and pretax loss of RM268 million. Assuming gross margin of 50%, Yes will need additional revenue of RM268m x 2 = RM530 million a year to break even.

Hence, I think Yes will need a minimum 1.5 million 5G active subscribers to break even at average monthly fee of RM60:

Revenue = RM60 x 1.5m x 3 mths = RM270 million per quarter or RM1.1 billon a year
Gross profit = 50% = RM135 million per quarter or RM540 million a year (after DNB assess fee)
Estimated overhead of about RM120 million a quarter, so Yes would make a profit of RM15m a quarter or RM60m PBT a year when it achieves 1.5 million 5G active subscribers.

If it can get 2 million 5G active subscribers, then revenue will be RM360m a quarter, gross profit of RM180m/qtr and pretax profit of RM60 million a quarter or RM240 million a year.

Posted by ChloeCheong > 2023-09-22 15:12 | Report Abuse

wow, that was a splendid estimation, dragon328

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 15:19 | Report Abuse

As for green data centre business, the management has guided for PBT of RM100 million a year for the 1st phase of 48MW.

From my own simulation for loan tenor of 10 years, IRR of 15%, Pretax profit will range from RM65m in initial years rising to RM135 million when loans are fully repaid, so averaged RM100 million a year.

As the 1st phase will complete in early 2024, so we may only see full contribution from Q4 FY2024 onwards.

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-22 15:22 | Report Abuse

@dragon328 thanks for the link

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-09-22 15:31 | Report Abuse

5G business is a volume game, the profit estimation figures above may not look too impressive, but the profit increase will be exponential once it achieves the critical mass.

If Yes can get 3 million subscribers at RM60/mth, then it may achieve revenue of RM2.1 billion a year and RM600 million pretax profit a year.

If it could get 3 million subscribers at RM120/mth, then revenue would be RM4.3 billion a year and pretax profit would be RM1.7 billion a year, similar to what Telekom Malaysia is doing now with 3 million unifi subscribers.

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-22 15:31 | Report Abuse

Good explanation.
Thank you dragon328.

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-22 15:33 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/680105
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/680085

I am positive on Malaysia stock market or KLSE over the next 3 years because our PM DSAI has done a good job to attract FDI and foreign funds to invest in our KLSE.
Focus on technical bull market sectors to win big in the next 3 years.
If the stock and the sector are in technical bull market, the stock and sector will perform very well even FBMKLCI is still in a technical bear market situation.
Our KLSE has not perform well in the last 30 years.
I still remember FBMKLCI was at record high 1,332 in January 1994, the FBMKLCI increased only 100 points until 2023.
JSX or Indonesian stock market has increased 650% in the last 30 years.

The share price of YTLPower was at the peak at 1.43 in 2010, since then the share price has been in the downtrend until early 2023.
The share price started to move up north at the end of May 2023 after a good Q3 March 2023 result. The share price at that time is around 1.20.
The PAT for FY2010 was 1.211 billion, if PAT for FY2024 is > 2.453 billion, the target price at 2.90 is very fair.
No reason to argue that the share price has increased from 0.70 to 2.11 (21/9/2023), hence the share price cannot move up further.
The share price of YTLPower can only move down to 1.28.
This argument is not based on facts and figures, but rather base on bullshit and telling lies.
We like to listen to a second opinion so that we are not wrong, you must substantial your argument based on your facts and figures.
I will respect you a lot if you talk with facts and figures.
Thank you.

Posted by Invest_888 > 2023-09-22 16:30 | Report Abuse

Bought some at RM2.09. Foreign traders will lose money if drop below RM2.08.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-09-22 17:03 | Report Abuse

Anwar promoting Msia in US currently. If YTLP can secure big name in tech like google to take up some MW power for YTL Green Data Centre in Johor, then price will fly. Just a dream...😄

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2023-09-22 17:10 | Report Abuse

No power already 🐌

Posted by KLV868 > 2023-09-22 17:13 | Report Abuse

@OTB Hi , with you experience as a remisier , i would like to seek your opinion about 1 scenario ; In the "Q" quantity in buy and sell column , why there was ALWAYS same both buy and sell Q-qty being cancelled . "FOR TODAY is-470200shares" ,normally at 2 bids below and above from transacted price?

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-22 17:39 | Report Abuse

KLV868,
I may not understand your question fully, I just try to answer your question.
If I answer wrongly, please raise your question again in more detail manner.
If I am not wrong, these orders (both buy and sell orders with same quantity) are married deal orders. These orders are restricted to the named or designated brokers only, others cannot execute these orders.
Once the married deals are done by both designated brokers, these orders are disappeared from the screen as if these orders are cancelled.
Hope I explain your question correctly.
Thank you.

Posted by Goldberg > 2023-09-22 19:22 | Report Abuse

The appreciation of the market capitalisation of YTL Corp Bhd and YTL Power International Bhd has raise their chances of being included into the 30-stock FBM KLCI in the upcoming November review, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB).

“Based on the current market capitalisation of YTL Corp and YTL Power, both entities are currently ranked above the 25th position within the KLCI. If this is maintained, both will be automatically included into the bellwether index in the upcoming November review,” HLIB said in a note on Friday.

The excitement mainly revolves around YTL Power, whose prospects HLIB remains upbeat about, with guided earnings sustainability for the next three years, partly driven by the group’s power business in Singapore through YTL PowerSeraya Pte Ltd.

“PowerSeraya’s earnings are expected to be stronger for the financial year ending June 30, 2024, driven by the tight power market situation, high lock-in retail prices, and low liquefied natural gas cost in the long term,” said the investment bank.

Moreover, HLIB said YTL Power’s venture into renewable energy (RE) and digitalisation areas are strategically in line with the government’s National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR).
The group has planned for 500 megawatt (MW) in data centre capacity over 10 years, investments worth RM15 billion.

HLIB said the first phase of 72MW, of which 48MW is secured for SEA Ltd, is under construction, and will be completed in stages over four years, with contributions starting in early 2024.
“When the assets mature, we do not discount potential monetisation,” said the investment bank.
HLIB said the development of YTL Power's 500MW large-scale solar project will eventually be developed to support the green energy supply to the group’s data centres.

“We believe there is an exciting future for the segment, as demand for green data centres is on the rise, with new opportunities to export RE to Singapore under the NETR by leveraging PowerSeraya,” it said.

Therefore, HLIB opined that YTL Power’s current valuation is “undemanding”, while earnings and dividends may “continue to surprise to the upside”.


https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/683523

Posted by MrFox > 2023-09-22 20:14 | Report Abuse

yes! hope the positivity will dtive the counter furthet north!

Posted by cgtan2020 > 2023-09-23 06:54 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wVqULbCG/
shrinking volume, nearer to EMA20.

Posted by KLV868 > 2023-09-23 10:57 | Report Abuse

@OTB Morning , thanks for the reply.

Posted by Go lucky Happy > 2023-09-23 13:00 | Report Abuse

Imo Utilities counters like Tenaga and ytlpower will prove to be resilient eventhough during recessions period.

Posted by kion11 > 2023-09-23 13:34 | Report Abuse

peeping into the future:
1. do ytlp have projects to sustain growth in the longer term?? Yess, the do!! Some of the development projects are in the pipeline.....may take less than 3 years to be realised and some may be more than 3 years. the business development projects will contribute very positively.
2. in the near term (2-3 years), some of the projects will contribute positively both in top line and botton line.
3. Is ytlp well managed?? Yes, it is!! Operational efficiency is definitely within...
4. is ytlp a good company to invest now or the future?? Definitely yes!!
5. the share price will definitely move upwards....by how much?? Well... there are plenty of parameters that will affect the price. Note: the checks are pointing very positively

Posted by OTB > 2023-09-23 19:25 | Report Abuse

YTLPower management guided for earnings sustainability for next 3 years.

I am positive on Malaysia stock market or KLSE over the next 3 years because our PM DSAI has done a good job to attract FDI and foreign funds to invest in our KLSE.
Focus on technical bull market sectors to win big in the next 3 years.
If the stock and the sector are in technical bull market, the stock and sector will perform very well even FBMKLCI is still in a technical bear market situation.
The share price of YTLPower is in a technical bull market. No worry !!

HL has underestimated a total of RM22.3 billion or RM2.75 per share.
If added, the SOP valuation of YTLPower should increase to RM3.23 + 2.75 = RM5.98 per share. Minus 10% holding discount, YTLPower SOP value should be around RM5.38.
Hope to see you at RM5.38 in 3 years down the road.
Thank you.

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-09-24 10:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-09-24 10:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-09-24 10:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-09-24 10:22 |

Post removed.Why?